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Biotech / Medical : Agouron Pharmaceuticals (AGPH) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (4146)	4/25/1998 6:42:00 PM
From: Peter Singleton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

Steve, That's why Rick is the most book-marked person who follows biotech on SI. To net out what Rick and John have said, AGPH appears to have a focused, well-thought through strategy with a lot of cards in their deck. They are behaving like a pharmaceutical company, not a development stage biotech. And they've made the transition in the capital markets to where they're judged on earnings (and expected certainty of earnings), not on the promise of their research. Although I haven't run the numbers, I suspect the current price can be justified on Viracept alone, and we're getting the research machine, with some very promising compounds, for free. And it is frustrating to buy last fall (I added to my position then as well) ... but this is a long term game. All of us need to have a cast-iron stomach for risk and a willingness to go a direction we believe in while the rest of the world seems to be going in the other. Peter

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (4146)	4/26/1998 2:33:00 PM
From: Steve Fancy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6136

Richard, I appreciate the comments...but a couple of questions if you have the time. 1) It appears to me that AGPH has released total control of marketing and sales of Viracept in foreign countries to other companies. From what I can gather, they don't even have an influence, and aren't being kept apprised of progress in any kind of timely manner, if at all. I am realizing that companies that find themselves in Agourons position have to strike the best deal they can to achieve maximize impact, but is it normal for a company like this to sign away their lifeblood, without even monthly sales figures broken down by country? Seems they can't even analyze their own progress against competitors. This is my impression of what's happening. 2) The market seems to be quickly building the risk factor back into AGPH. It stands to reason to me with my extremely limited experience that at some point Viracept market share will level off...maybe happening now. At that point, it seems likely it will start to slip as competition grows. I question whether the influx of new patients will keep up with rapidly increasing competition in this market. This may leave the future of the stock price hinging on the sentiment of their pipeline. From my perspective, this does not seem very high at this point. It would seem the scientific community, drug analysts and experienced folks like yourself are nowhere near convinced that these potential drugs will be a boon as other speculative biotechs. It seems to me that we're rapidly entering back into a speculative stage with Agouron, and the seemingly lack of support from the folks in the know is very bothersome to me. It would seem that now would be the time for biotech speculators such as yourself to be buying if confidence levels in the pipeline were very high. What will it take to convince you that AGPH is a buy again? Stock price in the twenties? Additional data on the pipeline? Or is the company totally off your radar screen. It would be my feeling that speculators in the know want in before the world wakes up. I don't get the impression you feel we're there yet, and that seems to be popular opinion. In that I'm sitting on substantial losses on this company, I really appreciate you're candid opinions. The bottom line in any investment is money. I'm unclear whether my money is betting on AGPH or the pipeline and I'm not interested in waiting until 2001 plus to recoup my losses. On the other hand, after all the pain, I don't want to jump ship prematurely. Thanks for your time. sf

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (4146)	8/2/1998 12:34:00 AM
From: Bhag Karamchandani	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6136

Richard : Never ever counted you among the desperate longs. In retrospect, binary labels ( disappointed/ desperate) are always arbitrary and unfair. I hereby withdraw them. Peter and Steve, and many many others (too many to name) have also maintained a degree of objectivity- as they have expressed concerns despite their long positions. Hope AGPH, as well as, all those who make valuable contributions to this thread, including yourself do well. Cheers.