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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paulmcg0 who wrote (17302)	4/25/1998 6:28:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Paul: don't put off buying a house...if the market doesn't crash we face a serious bout of hyperinflation...and a house is your best defense as a hedge. Just make sure it can be rented for the price of the mortgage. I don't know where the money supply is coming from, but raging inflation is the other result of an inflated stock market and I suspect Greenspan is far too late to control it.

To: paulmcg0 who wrote (17302)	4/25/1998 7:00:00 PM
From: Vitas	Respond to of 94695

There is a documented 18 2/3 year cycle in real estate. In recent history, the real estate market had a bottom in 1974-75. You are supposed to divide the 18 2/3 cycle in half to get the next projected peak Then you are supposed to look at peak volume activity to peg the last actual top. 18 2/3 years after 74-75 says that the next bottom was 92-93. 9 1/3 years after peak volume activity (1988) says the bottom in real estate was 1997. Either way, there's more room to grow. Sam Zell, a fairly sharp guy said that he thought 1999 was going to be a gangbuster year in RE, but he may have been saying that from the commercial office market point of view. Vitas

To: paulmcg0 who wrote (17302)	4/25/1998 7:34:00 PM
From: Vitas	Respond to of 94695

Re: crash I don't see a "crash" in this time frame for 3 reasons. 1. The Mac sum oscillator is at a very high nominal reading. Now that does not rule out serious corrective action, which the triple declining peak pattern I think is projecting. Then again, I get a big kick from those that thought Oct. 1997 was a "crash". 2. William O'Neil , editor of Investors Business Daily, pointed out in the late 80's that there is a 23 year up cycle in the market, followed by a 17 year down or sideways market. Back then I went through a long term chart and it is a valid point. 3. The "crash" of 1987 was a douzy, and it happened within O'Neil's cycle. But it started from a Mac sum oscillator reading of 1500. In retrospect it was a pullback from a breakout which occurred on the first trading day of 1986. If you look at it on a LONG term chart with a linear regression channel drawn in you will see that since 1789 the market stayed within that channel up to 1985. In 1929 it pierced the upper band and quickly came back down within it (understatement). In 1986 it broke out above it and has never returned. If you think of the market as a stock, it broke out (1986), pulled back near to the breakout point, the crash of 1987, and has never returned. If you take one look at that chart you will be spellbound by that breakout. Vitas

To: paulmcg0 who wrote (17302)	4/26/1998 4:22:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

If stocks get deflated, so will the housing prices to some extent. Don't worry about inflation. Rates may go up for a little while. If financial assets deflate significantly, so will housing prices, because buying will taper -- if rates are high and the real estate market is no longer great (a seller's market) you won't have any trouble finding a mortgage to assume. Remember, a lot of folks who have refinanced have taken full advantage by spending the difference. Common wisdom is there is no better time to buy a house than when interest rates are at lows, but the other side of the coin is prices are high locally (in time) because credit is easy to obtain which has stimulated demand.