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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (17418)	4/27/1998 10:38:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Chip; RE >catalyst for this mornings stronge sell-off.....as well as those in European index' << Well on the surface that looks plausible, and for sure was part of it, along with interest rate jitters; below the surface there is something going on we do not know about yet many things come to mind..to many to speculate amoung..but the broad sell off in Asia, & Euorpe also has a catalyst..one we are not being told of..while this sell off may have looked dramatic..it is more the indexes we look at adusting towards the direction of a bigger move that had already started..I keep telling people the MEGA caps peaked about APRIL 5th or 6th and have been sliping down from their high back then..they are to the market like the moon is to our oceans.. while the S&P etc may often go on up for a while after the MEGAs peak , they will turn..the wind may blow the tide in.. and aginst the forse of the moon...but by golly the moon will win in time and when the wind stops the tide will rush out. THe mega caps were down 4% before this even started..people just were not looking at them..we seem to have a fixation on the DOW and The S&P..( but they really trail the market ).. the are the surface indicators..under the surface you have a hand full of Super CAPS..and as a grope they set the trend.. or the tide..at the end of the super cap run the others continue to run for a distance , depending on the momentum which is dependent on the divergance between the Mega , and the othes prior to the turn. In this case the divergance was a good 2%..when the MEGAs come about ( boat term for turn around ) the rest of the market will slide down about another 2%..if and when I see the down side divergance get to about 2% then I'll call a bottom. From what I can see at this point this will not be any Big Kahuna, as today the relitive speed ( rate of fall ) was faster for the general market than it was for the Mega caps..but we have more to go. Both Thrusday and Friday the MEGA caps had the down momentum.. over the others..today as the smaller ones passed them up it picked up the rate of the MEGAS also...but still left them behind.. MEGAs only fell 1.3% today..( that's a lot for them ) but not near the amount the others fell.. ----------------------------- Beyond all that there still is something going on thats not been made public, and is the privledged information of an elite circle who can pull some powerful strings. ------------------------------ Last the DOW head continued to dip at a rate faster than the tail head down 1.73%..tail down 1.22%...so that from April 17th the Head is down 3.52% to the tail 1.08% thats still a lot of divergance..and makes me think we have at least 200pts more down side to the Dow before this turns. AND we could go back to 8200.. which would give us about a 10% correction over all.. On the other hand if she can pop back to 9000 tomorrow we may not get the correction I'm looking for. ------------------------ Jim ------------------------------