To: Paul Engel who wrote (54601 ) 4/27/1998 2:54:00 PM From: Burt Masnick Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 186894
Investors try to pick great companies or movement directions for the long pull. Some of the guys here try to pick directions for a week, a day, an hour. The only one I saw who did that short term thing well consistently was Jack Raines who was somehow able to be both a trader and an investor in Intel. Jack, as I recall, was driven off this thread by some sharp tongued critics. I have seen some others who can do this every now and then, but Jack was amazing because he did trades almost every day and seemed to have a plausible batting average. But to do that stuff you have to have incredible discipline, great knowledge and the ability to admit that you are wrong and cut your losses, something that is not evidenced by most of the crew here. The short termers want to play the little bounces. The investors (and I would even include the long term shorts) want to capture long large moves that signify fundamental change in the environment. It's sort of like comparing marathoners and sprinters. Sprinters are lousy marathoners and marathoners are lousy sprinters. What is fascinating is to see the short termers get into a dispute with an investor like you. It's like an argument in French and Swahili. And rude swahili at that. Anyone can turn on CNBC at 6 am EST (as I did) and know that today was going to be real crummy. And I had read toward the end of last week that the Fed was beginning to make noises about raising interest rates soon. I guess if you are a short term day trader, this is heaven because there isn't much guesswork. Just go short (at least for a couple of hours). I personally wouldn't play that game. I'm built for marathons, not sprints. But long term all that matters is whether Intel has a good business plan and whether they can execute. So far, they have done a great job on business plans and they usually execute well. They are not immune to wild cards like the downturn in Asia, but they are very nimble, simultaneously conservative and aggressive. All a long termer can do is watch these technical market events for buying opportunities (as you indicated you have done) and try to pick off some long term bargains. Best regards, Burt