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To: Jim McMannis who wrote (54610)4/27/1998 7:29:00 PM
From: Sonny McWilliams  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
Jim. Re: The majority of investors will stay in denial. Like "one rate hike won't hurt".

So, you are second guessing my statement about interest rates? Or let's say give it 2 different meanings? gg. Alright, let's say we would NOT have stayed in denial when A.Greenspan hiked the rate last time. How often did he raise it after that? I kind of forgot. ;) The market was around 50% lower when he thought it looked like it may be overvalued. Could he have used the WSJ as a front this time?

But you may be right. Sometimes one rate hike will be followed by other rate hikes. We went through that. And the inflation was just as tame then as now? Yeah, stocks go up and stocks go down. You just can never go wrong with that in the long run. Right now stocks are going down. Why? Because there is talk about a rate hike. Talk. And stocks are overvalued again? If stocks are going too high, why do they have to be sold? Why couldn't those funds just stay put and wait for things to catch up? Whom does it benefit when those managers and analysts suddenly yell the market is too high or there may be a rate hike? I don't think that all the little guys are sitting still when this happens. Look at our posts here. I have one on that says that I sold some of my Intel when T.K. opened his mouth last time around. I thought it would drop and I could pick it up lower. It did and I bought. Anyhow, that's the way things work on Wall Street. Very seldom does WS work strictly on fundamentals. You are right. It works mostly on fear and greed. Guilty. I will stay mostly put along with some trading unless I see fundamental changes. I never have figured out for sure if it is better to be out early or out late unless you hold all your stocks for the long term. If you get out too early you miss some up move, if you get out late, you give some of that up move back. gg.

Anyway, last rate hike did not kill the bull market. One of these days it will. So maybe the FED should not raise interest rates unless we see inflation pressures. And there is still talk that Asia will affect us later on this year. Maybe another reason to wait as far as a rate hike is concerned.

It is said that the DOW will be at 14.000 by the year 2000, 20.000 by the year 2005 and then 40.000 thereafter at one point. So, should we lose our shirt in the mean time we should be able to make it back if we are still here. gg.

Sonny