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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Hunt who wrote (15578)	4/28/1998 9:24:00 AM
From: Defrocked	Respond to of 18056

Sad, but true. Could end up being his only black mark in a storied career. My guess is that after the Dec.96 and Mar.97 warnings he gave up and didn't want to be tagged as "the cause". On the other hand, maybe AG and you and me are wrong.<g> My view of this market is that I'd rather be a seller at 6 to 10 times book than a buyer. I feel a "two-tier" market has emerged during the last several years. If you can buy near book during the 144A/PP and pre-IPO, selling to the public at inflated market price-to-book ratios is a no-brainer. Of course there is risk but not nearly the risk that the average post-IPO purchaser takes. Why do you think Goldman Sachs is seriously considering going public at a minimum of 3.5 times book??? (Reminds me of Bear Sterns in the fall of '86 not too much in advance of the '87 selloff.) This spread between "wholesale" and "retail" cannot last forever. The huge price-to-book ratios have been partly fueled by easy money conditions. When the Fed, or in its absence FX and bond traders, inevitably tightens credit conditions, the hangover will begin.

To: John Hunt who wrote (15578)	4/28/1998 9:41:00 PM
From: Simon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18056

<< His silence is irresponsible, in my humble opinion.>>> He had to bail out the mkt in 87 with unlimited credit. It's hard to believe he wants to go through that again. Perhaps he just likes beating his head against a brick wall. I'm surprised how silent Rubin is on the situation considering he was Co-Chair at Goldman Sacks. If he doesn't see what is happening, then maybe his daddy bot him the job.