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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (3106)	4/28/1998 2:49:00 PM
From: LK2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

>>I'm trying to find the best way to increase my return.<< Mark, the stock market is a guessing game. It's impossible to reliably guess what a given stock will do, either this week or the next week. Even if you had access to far better fundamental information on WDC, QNTM, SEG than is available on these threads, you still couldn't reliably predict what the stocks will do on a day-to-day basis. The strong rise in prices for the hard drives stocks last week, and their dropping prices the first two days this week, are basically random events. Personally, I think you're probably better off avoiding options. I know people say that selling options is a way to make some money while you're waiting for the stock to move. But the problem is, if the stock does move up, you've traded that potential gain for the option's premium. I'm not saying it very clearly. Over time, options will cost you money. They won't make you money (if you compare what you would have by selling the options with a simple un-optioned portfolio). That's because of transaction costs (commissions, spread, and other factors). I'm talking in general terms for the average investor. The stock market can be very frustrating. But that's something we all have to learn to live with, if we want to invest in the stock market, trying to get a better return than what's available at the local bank or money market fund. Best wishes, Larry

To: Mark Oliver who wrote (3106)	4/28/1998 3:02:00 PM
From: Yogi - Paul	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9256

Mark, Look, you all have done a fine job in projecting ASPs, inventory levels, potential new demand drivers, yields, ad nauseum. All of these things are vital data in making a fundamental call on the health and potential of a sector or individual company. Somewhere, though, you have to ask: What price am I willing to pay for a future earnings stream? Personally, I am not willing to pay much for projected earnings in two years unless I am seeing fundamental strength in the sector or company. The only widely agreed upon opinion throughout this whole discussion is that the sector fundamentals blow big time. Now short term option plays and momentum plays are an entirely different thing. These depend more on market psychology than sector or company fundamentals. By the way, I have always presented exactly what I am buying to this and other groups and I have never presented myself as anything other than an average struggling private investor. Why didn't I buy last week? Hell, I was selling into strength last week and I said so. The links, if you care to look. Message 3665348 Message 4217664 Now that this is over with, you really do have the best thread with the best, most careful, most truthful participants on SI. irthrifty