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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Red Dragon who wrote (4801)	4/28/1998 8:51:00 PM
From: Rillinois	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 42834

Is UTEK a 1999 or 2000 story? Or is that just Brinker's way of saying "the idea didn't work when I said it would, so give me another 2 years?" It seems that lately Brinker has been saying that UTEK has and always has been a 1999/2000 story. He's also attempted to discredit his critics by inferring that they seek "instant gratification" from his recommendations. He says that if his recommendations don't double or triple over night that they are not satisfied. Nothing can be further from the truth. Investors who followed Brinker's original newsletter recommendation have been waiting for nearly 10 months and they weren't expecting a double or triple overnight. They were just expecting to get what Brinker told them to expect if they took the risk. In my opinion, what we are seeing is a little oral/verbal sleight-of-hand (spin) performed by one of the best in the business, Bob Brinker. I don't know how Bob could say that UTEK is and always has been a 1999/2000 story with a straight face. I could've sworn he recommended UTEK in July '97 with a 12 to 18 month time frame. Does anybody remember the term "FORMULA TRADE"? When did UTEK ever become a 1999/2000 story? Was it after he finally realized his original recommendation didn't pan out? Or was it when he found a way out of this mess, the famous "smoking gun", if you will? You see, Brinker is trying to position himself in a way where he can claim victory regardless if UTEK goes up in 1998 or not. If it does go up in 1998, then he was RIGHT. If it doesn't, then he can fall back on the false premise that UTEK is and always has been a 1999/2000 story. Well, I've decided to look into when UTEK became a 1999/2000 story, according to Brinker, for the benefit of all those who are interested in the truth about Brinker's recommendation to purchase UTEK. Furthermore, let me say that I am appalled by some of the misinformation that is being spread on the Internet about Brinker's recommendations. Exaggerations on either side of where and when Brinker recommended a particular stock is wrong. Let's judge his recommendations based on facts and not rumor or hyperbole. I hope that my posts help other investors base their opinions on facts. The following was taken straight out of Bob Brinker's Marketimer newsletter dated July 1997. The newsletter is published out of Irvington, NY and edited by Robert J. Brinker, himself. The newsletter is readily available at your public library for those who wish to check the accuracy of the following quote: "RECOMMENDED FORMULA TRADE FOR AGGRESSIVE INVESTORS" "We recommend purchase of Ultratech-Stepper (UTEK - Nasdaq) at $24 or less. These shares can be purchased by aggressive risk oriented subscribers for a Marketimer formula trade. In this formula trade, your profit objective is preset at 50% and the timeframe for the trade is the next twelve to eighteen months. In this formula trade, UTEK is purchased at $24 or lower in anticipation of a move to $36 per share between now and sometime in 1998. Ultratech-Stepper is involved with several new products with excellent potential in 1998 and beyond. These include P-Gild and E-Beam technology and new applications for stepper products. We estimate 1998 earnings will rebound into the $1.75 to $2.00 range. If UTEK shares can command a price/earnings multiple of eighteen times $2.00, the shares can reach our profit target of $36 by next year. Of course, UTEK must execute its business plan in order to achieve these earnings gains. In our view, the risk/reward tradeoffs at prices of $24 or lower are favorable for aggressive investors. As always, holdings should be limited to 4% or less of equities based on cost. Ultratech-Stepper has over 21 million shares outstanding and is down from its all time high of $47 in 1995. The shares bottomed out in July of 1996 at $14 and have traded between the mid-to-high teens and $30 since that time." This does not sound like a 1999/2000 story to me. And I'm sure any neutral person reading this will agree with me. Brinker, specifically, labeled this trade as a formula trade, not a 2-3 year long-term investment. What's even more mind boggling is why Brinker let's his large ego get in the way of just saying that the idea didn't work as he originally envisioned it. He very specifically said in his original recommendation that UTEK is for aggressive investors and that "UTEK must execute its business plan in order to achieve these earnings gains". Well, it doesn't look like they executed and aggressive investors should know that there is a chance that ideas don't always work out. So why tell people all of a sudden that UTEK is a 1999/2000 story? Why not just come out and say "this formula trade for aggressive investors didn't work because the company didn't execute its business plan"? The answer is simple, EGO. Brinker could also just show some conviction behind his original recommendation and stand behind his original time frame, but I guess he realizes that the chances are slim and it would make better political sense to extend his time frame. Yes, UTEK might eventually execute it's business plan in 1999, 2000, 2001, .2010; but is that the reason why Brinker recommended UTEK? No, it's not. It was a formula trade for aggressive risk oriented subscribers. A formula trade where "your profit objective is preset at 50% and the timeframe for the trade is the next twelve to eighteen months". I'm sure UTEK will eventually go up one day and Brinker will have his day to say "I told you so", but the way I see it is if that day isn't before the end of 1998, then he didn't execute. You can't just keep prolonging your time frame, can you? I mean, even Michael "The Great Bear" Metz will eventually be right one day if we allow him to prolong his time frame. (For those who are not familiar with Michael Metz, he has been bearish for years and he keeps popping his head on TV calling for Armageddon). Regards. Rillinois