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Strategies & Market Trends : Bob Brinker: Market Savant & Radio Host -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (4807)	4/29/1998 1:06:00 AM
From: michael meyers	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

Skeeter, a good post. As you say, investing is about probabilities . It is the overall portfolio return vs. risk that matters, not any one individual recommendation. If you are like me, you have some real duds and some stars. The duds were not mistakes any more than the stars were strokes of genius. The point is that having a diversified portfolio [with necessarily some losers ] reduces risk far more than return, leading to a much better risk/return ratio. Bottom line, rubbing Bob Brinker's nose in his recommendation of UTEK is missing the whole point, specifically the diversified portfolio approach that Bob Brinker constantly advocates. Regards, Michael

To: Skeeter Bug who wrote (4807)	4/29/1998 3:08:00 AM
From: Alan Bell	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42834

Skeeter, Your point that investing is about probabilities is certainly correct. Many people are very pleased that Bob has presented some higher risk/higher reward recommendations/advice to augment his core index fund philosophy. I will be very satisfied with Bob's guidance even if UTEK doesn't work out because of advice about July 96, Jan 9, PFE, and of course, "Bob Brinker Investment University." But I can't agree with you that Bob's recommendation of Utek was incorrect. The fundamentals that underlay the recommendation are still intact. It is a long time between now and the end of the year and the stock price could change dramatically given the large short interest, the large cash position, etc. One has to ask what does success of this recommendation mean? Would his recommendation be wrong if it only moves up 25% but not up to his target? Would it be wrong if Bob calls and we get a bear market between now and the end of the year? So is it a failure because the Asian crisis delayed the timescale? I think not. In fact if you compare it against the major semiconductor equipment manufacturers, one could claim that it is a success right now. In the July '97 to current timeframe, AMAT is down 8%, KLAC is down 25%, and UTEK is up 4%. -- Alan