To: Francis Chow who wrote (54749 ) 4/29/1998 11:51:00 AM From: Mary Cluney Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
Francis,>>>I'm not sure the Y2K problem will result in better hardware sales, though I've seen plenty of commentary to that effect. Y2K is primarily a software problem. Buying new machines won't fix it. <<< Maybe not in a direct way - but, indirectly, there are an estimated 1 trillion (Tony's figure $1T @ $1/Loc ) lines of code in legacy systems that have to be looked at and made y2k compliant. Perhaps 40% of that is already compliant and perhaps another 40% will be made compliant by the y2k. The balance, however, will not be fixed and perhaps continue to run beyond y2k. Some of those will undoubtedly crash and be replaced by newer systems on newer hardware (IA64 - Merced type?). And, of course some will go away and not be replaced at all. To be sure, Tony's concern vis a vis robustness of the mainframe tip the balance in the mainframes favor for the time being. However, the mainframe world has focused its resources on those issues (i.e., Reliability, Availability, and Serviceability) for over thirty years. But, that is history. The bet is for the future and the direction of the big MO. The difference between a proprietary and centralized system versus distributed and connected mpu based systems is pretty much like communism versus capitalism. Once the wall came down - in this case around 1994-95 when the Internet exploded - the investment and creative focus has shifted heavily towards commercially-off-the-shelf (COTS) software using IP and mpu standards. My guess is that there will be accellerating and greater progress made concerning those other issues Tony raised (i.e,.,Secuirty, Scalability, and Bandwidth) in mpu based systems - and they will rival S390 in short order (less than 5 yrs - about the time it takes to ramp up Merced). It was like when IBM spent billions of dollars on R&D but real innovation had to come from sources at the grass roots level (eg, Jobs, Gates, Allen, et al). IMVVVHO, Mary