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Technology Stocks : Concurrent Computer (CCUR) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Christiaan McDonald who wrote (3523)	4/29/1998 8:13:00 PM
From: Randolph Gwirtzman	Respond to of 21143

Thanks Ken and Arthur re: overhead discussion. I actually did state in my first post that I was ignoring CAPEX (i.e., economies gained from leveraging fixed overhead expenditures for the time being). My estimate is on the conservative end, since I don't know how much ADDITIONAL CAPEX the company will need to support the production of tens of millions of dollars of VOD equipment. Thus, my method assumes a proportional increase in overhead expenditures (which is conservative, but not unreasonable given CCUR is at the beginning stages of a radical new production and sales strategy). By taking a fixed breakeven and assuming variable profits over and above that point, you both have assumed that CCUR will be perfectly budgeted for its new product production, that it will gain optimal yields on its production, and that it won't take a large amount of SG&A to keep the ball rolling. And the breakeven impliedly assumes that R&D is complete for the product, and won't need to be significantly ramped up as the glitches (inevitably) arise in a product rollout. However, your breakeven number may be correct, and then I would be underestimating the company's potential profits. Can you give me some guidance as to how you arrived at your figure? Thanks in advance.

To: Christiaan McDonald who wrote (3523)	4/29/1998 8:22:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21143

Ken, I do not like to hear that it is uncertain what the Aegis program would mean to CCUR. That is a lot different than "Aegis will be great, we just don't yet know how great". China still sounds like it is not done. I am mentally prepared for a poor quarter. Steve, if all that happens at the show is that CCUR exhibits with SFA, with no orders or any contractual arrangement which could result in some announced, I think that is in the stock now.

To: Christiaan McDonald who wrote (3523)	4/29/1998 11:00:00 PM
From: G. Thomas Kaiser	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21143

I have heard that CCUR-SEAC-and DIVA will all be in the SFA booth next week. I have also heard that SFA is most pleased with CCUR. In the SFA conference call last week it appeared that no single provider will get all of the VOD business. Doubtful that a single manufacturer could supply all of the equipment with the numbers I heard mentioned. SFA would be better served if they had more than one supplier. Plenty of business for all. I have not heard much talk about earnings. I would take this to mean they may be unimpressive. Just a guess, no validity to the statement. I didn't buy the stock for this quarter so it is not a significant factor.