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Technology Stocks : Ciena (CIEN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (2063)	4/29/1998 11:29:00 PM
From: joe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12623

>>Ever heard of foot in the door folks...<< Yeah, that's why the WorldCom contract is holding us up above 60 now... (that use to be a nice foot in the door, and hopefully still is, but how much are you willing to bet on it with the information available to you, right at this moment?) >> The point is not the $s in the contract - the point is the contract.<< Wrong focus. The point is that this stock shows possible signs of manipulation and speculation. (Obviously, the contract is beneficial, and could be a foot in the door, with a well established European company; but it is not what we should be focusing on, IMO) I'm also not saying it's a negative stock. I just think it can't hurt to have a 'healthy skepticism'. Look, I've already got $$ in this stock. My point is I'd like to put more into it - but need more justification; need to be surer about it's future. Yes, it's nice to have a good connect with this European company, Hermes Europe Railtel (HER), but why is it only investing $10-15million? Is it afraid that it may learn in the future that it's technological direction might possibly be off-course? If so, that could be a serious problem for CIEN being a one-trick pony at the moment (but, I do think they will expand; just hope they are given the opportunity). So, HER is scaling in just as a lot of the up and coming Data Network players are doing - to be cautious. If the Data Network revolution is booming (which it is in my opinion), then $10-15million for one year is peanuts; it's too cautious. Does the company (Hermes Europe Railtel) think that the pace of development of the Data Networks is a little slower than normally perceived? If this is true, this will give competition more time to get in. The longer the Internet revolution takes to evolve -- the more everybody knows it's the big money maker in the future. LOTS of companies are looking into this thing! And technologically, they can catch-up to CIEN's current lead. I estimate that lead will be good for 1 year. After that, if CIEN hasn't been given a chance to grow, it may not have the chance. Also, I think tomorrow or the next day, CIEN's price is going down some - to me it seems like somebody just threw some money at it, and it went up at 2:00pm. Maybe from the H&Q meeting, somebody got inspired? So, what's it's true worth at the moment? Between 40-50? Is over 50 too much of a gamble at the moment? Or is it an all or nothing risk? Anotherwards, at this point CIEN will either double, triple, or just plain stagnate - no inbetween? (Present price is therefore not meaningful.) >>Is good news really so terrible?<< Of course not, as long as you're pretty sure it's good news, and not hype or self-delusion. *CISCO* To me, this is a much bigger plus than the HER contract. CISCO is obviously positioning itself for the future Data Network industry. Even if the World Com deal doesn't go through for CIENA, along with the RBOC deals, it could be that the real future is the LECs,CLECs, and IXCs. I suspect that this is the area that a CISCO/CIEN combination can count on (lots of mom & pop deals will be available). Just wish I could see that CISCO/CIEN brand-new relationship a little stronger/clearer/longer... OK, folks, rip 'er up. I know I've gotta be off-base here somewhere's!! Joe