Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: H. Wai who wrote (45853)	5/1/1998 3:56:00 PM
From: djane	Respond to of 61433

Briefing.com comment on Bandwidth Paradigm at H&Q. 15:20 ET ****** BANDWIDTH PARADIGM. At the H&Q Technology conference that ended yesterday, hundreds of individual companies delivered their sales pitches, but only a few big-picture themes emerged. One was the reintermediation or "portal"-ization of the Internet which we wrote about on Wednesday. The other was that the bandwidth vs processor speed paradigm shift is still winning converts. Once-hot stocks like Rambus (RMBS 43 11/16 -1 1/4) met with lackluster crowds and a greater focus on croissants and the Mercury News than the presentation. Meanwhile, bandwidth plays like Advanced Fiber (AFCI 40 13/16 -1 9/16) and Qwest (QWST 38 3/16 -3/8) were packing them in. These two companies were among the most well received at the conference, and offer two different approaches to bandwidth plays: equipment (AFCI) and services (QWST). Both, however, are similar in that they are succeeding against much larger players that have investments in older technologies. Both are also seeing good success in the US and the promise of great things to come overseas (and particularly the Holy Grail for all telecoms cos., China). Valuations are high, but as with another paradigm play -- the Internet -- money managers are buying the future. So long as these companies continue to convert on their business plans, the paradigm shift will bring money into their stocks.

To: H. Wai who wrote (45853)	5/1/1998 3:59:00 PM
From: djane	Respond to of 61433

BARS upgrade of FORE. ATM as fastest growing sub-segment in networking industry (from briefing.com) Fore Systems Inc. (FORE) 23 3/4 +7/8: BA Robertson Stephens upgrades provider of ATM switches, LAN switches and network interface cards from "market perform" to "buy" based on greater demand for ATM equipment in both wide and local-area networks; believes that ATM will be one of the fastest growing sub-segments in the networking industry; company's ATM product lines have been increasing as a percentage of revenue and expects LAN switching to accelerate due to strong backlog position in March qtr; raises FY99 EPS from $0.61 to $0.63 and FY00 from $0.81 to $0.85.....

To: H. Wai who wrote (45853)	5/1/1998 4:04:00 PM
From: djane	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 61433

Briefing.com summaries of H&Q presentations by networkers Ascend Communications Although well attended, this presentation didn't give much new information. Dominated by a Q&A format from one of the H&Q analysts, the questions seemed like softballs, and the answers were vague. A big disappointment for many managers and for us. Interviews on CNBC are tougher than this one. The only items of interest to come out were the statements that Lucent is a "strong competitor" in the low end for them and Cisco is a strong difficult competitor in dial-in products. A new product coming down the line is "voice-over" capability for their existing ISP customers. This means Internet Service Providers can add on to existing Ascend products and bring voice-over-the-Internet capability directly to the end-user. This exciting prospect may mean you can talk over the internet with your PC microphone and speakers as part of your normal Internet access service sooner than you think. 3COM A broad overview of 3Com's product line, probably already known by anyone who owns 3Com. From a technical point of view, 3Com stated that the coming transition from a "Store-and-Forward" technology to a "direct move" technology will benefit 3Com more than other competitors. The elimination of s&f technology should help increase bandwidth on the Internet. We haven't done enough research to know if 3Com's claim to have a lead here is accurate, but we will keep it in mind. From a financial perspective, 3Com gave as this years goal an operating profit margin of 16-20%. However, last quarter's was only 1.3%, so they have a long way to go. To meet this goal they have to drive the gross margin up to 47% from current 43%, and drive operating expenses down to 27% from 42%. For those of you unfamiliar with financial statistics, this would be an incredible feat if accomplished in only one year. It is likely we weren't they only skeptics in the audience on this statement. Bay Networks Talk about dull. This sparsely attended presentation lost everyone on slide three as the differences between L3 and L2 networks were elaborately explained. Granted, the presentation was at 5:00, but we saw more nodding heads than at some of the 7:30 am presentations. One particularly curious comment was the statement by Gary Vacon that the network market is "maturing" and as such, the need for optimizing products is getting stronger. Therefore Bay Networks is focusing on products for optimizing IP performance. Bay Networks may see the market as maturing, but we don't think Cisco would view it that way. After all, Cisco's growth curve is still rising sharply, not the definition of a mature market at all. Cisco was not invited to the conference. PairGain Sparsely attended, dull presentation. With declining margins, managers interest seems to be waning. Although a leader in installed T1 lines, PairGain also has 700K DSL lines installed. As such, it is not valued as an ADSL play, apparently since the success of one business hurts the other. In any event, we were surprised at how little interest was shown by the attendees in this once hot stock. When the bloom is off the rose, it shows.

To: H. Wai who wrote (45853)	5/1/1998 4:26:00 PM
From: bucky89	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Do you think Fore's ASX-4000 ATM switch competes with any of Ascend's product? Don't know much about it except for the press release. Like I said before, FORE doesn't have a background in IP, and so they may have difficulty in value-added features such as MPLS. I see no mention of IP in the press release. I would guess it doesn't have the "smart" capabilities that Ascend's switches have of doing IP routing. Other than that, it looks like a direct competitor for the GX550. The only difference is the Fore switch won't ship till this summer, and the GX550 is shipping now. bucky89