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To: ken alpous who wrote (12079)5/2/1998 1:19:00 AM
From: shane forbes  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 25814
 
Semiconductor demand:

In spite of all the mayhem I think the inflexion point for PC demand has just been passed (surprised me how quickly this appears to be happening but throughout I have never fully believed the hype that unit demand for PCs is down - INTC's doom and gloom ignored - yet another fine example of very fast supply chain adjustments), saw today that fabless guys are asking for more wafers, chip prices are stabilizing (feely touchy guessing), I suspect lead times are stabilizing/lengthening (feely touchy guessing), I see unit volume demand soaring...

So why are the semis not going up?

Dumb Street or What is Kurlak smoking?

Shane (who still thinks his theory of seeing a "sudden" surge in semi-stocks is valid. Unless market melts tough to see Kurlak's new lows for semis this summer argument. Fear that in between the more likely question will be: What am I smoking? And yes yes to all the e-mailers yes I lowball my stock price estimates for LSI - so what? - sue me. And yes there is another ugly thing on the horizon and that is Japanese demand.... Hope springs eternal in this boy with a 25% stake in chip stocks though 10% is almost assuredly not going to get moving for at least another year. Still 15% is a good sized bet...)