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To: JZGalt who wrote (21134)	5/2/1998 4:41:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

I think the last 3 months is enough for the mad dash up phase to cap off a bull. However, I believe we will make one last speculative run in the coming month to 9400 or 9600 before the blowoff. The point is to start selling into this rally and not wait for it to roll over because the selling will be fast and furious. Note that the NASCRAP appears to be leading the rest of the mkt and has already had its blow off phase IMO which occurred two weeks ago. NASCRAP looks to be forming a nice little head and shoulders pattern. we're alot closder than you think. 2 yrs away? no way. I say months at MOST. The real "crash" won't ocur for several months out. But the top should be VERY soon. Could be a couple weeks away. -Lucretius

To: JZGalt who wrote (21134)	5/2/1998 4:57:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

BTW-- <<<IMO, We are overdue for a really nice 8-10% decline in a bull market, but a bear market? We just aren't there yet despite the p/e's in MSFT, DELL, KO, G and the other new nifty fifty. Demographically, the boomers will keep pouring money into the market until buying the dips doesn't work. There is no evidence that that sea change in their attitude is about to happen. >>> I think the majority of people agree w/ you, that's why it will happen. If most thought like myself and the few remaining bears out there, we'd have a long way to go. Keep in mind, I just turned bearish over the last couple months. The public blew their wad in Oct-March period. Everyone is in. Cramer posted an article the other night about a conversation he had w/ a cab driver on whether to buy GLM or not..... GOOD GRIEF!!! He didn't recognize that conversation for what I do. he was focused on discussing the drillers. I say the real heart of that story was.... if a cab driver is discussing the merits of the offfshore drillers, this bull is near death. -Lucretius