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Non-Tech : Invest / LTD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bw who wrote (2)	5/2/1998 4:43:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

not talking about a correction. I'm talking about goodbye to the 18 year Bull, and hello big bad Bear. Stocks could lose 70% of their value. It will be VERY bad. You can't imagine that now, but would you have belived me in 1980 if I told you the mkt would be at 9200 in '98? Gold is your only way out.

To: bw who wrote (2)	5/2/1998 7:11:00 PM
From: Teddy	Respond to of 14427

well i don't agree with the long bear market theory and neither does my Dad the Bean Counter. His big picture projects the market to continue upwards (with regular corrections along the way) for about ten more years. This is mostly based on the Baby Boomers continuing to regularly add to their IRAs and other retirement plans. Forget about historical PEs, stock prices move do to supply and demand: there is more money flowing into the market than going out, so stocks will continue to go up. (Of course there will always do some stocks that go down.) We see no signs of inflation and do not see why interest rates should rise more than .25% this year. Buy the dips! Gold? It's just a commodity now. My personal opinion is that most gold mining stocks are not worth the paper that they are printed on. BTW, nice idea starting this thread: The Secret Society of Investors LTD

To: bw who wrote (2)	5/3/1998 2:20:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 14427

bw, thanks for creating this little space. I like this idea. I think I'm in between LT's end-of-the-world scenario and Teddy's dad's 10 more good years scenario. Since I'm not in loved with any one stock either scenario should not affect my investment much. There may be warning shots like a repeated Black Monday once every few months but I think the first one is going to be like the last two, sharp drop one day and bounced right back the next, unless it is triggered by the Fed raising interesting rate by more than 0.5% and Greenspan treatens to tighten to preempt any inflation. Meanwhile, I'm long overall and use the follow the herd mentality in my approach. LT's venture into NKE and DELL was very disheartening because bad fundamentals do not mean the stocks going down any time soon. It may be a full 3-6 months before they go down and going shorts are too speculative and easy to lose one's pant. It's like saying I've done my homework and think the stock should go down so I short them. The unknown is when and that "when" can be too long a time to be either in dead money or losing pant. I just think the risk/reward equation does not favor reward when the timing is so uncertain. Teddy, I thought you decided to pass on OPMRF and its U-scan. Did you get interested again or just doing the OPMRF thread a service? I'm still in OPMRF with 3 accounts! Cleared my other account off of OPMRF because I was afraid I'm overexposed. There are times when I see or hear or know of certain special situation plays. Shall I post them here or use private mails? Well, I guess if it is semi-insider info, then I will only use private maila but if it is rumor or TA or anything else then I'll post it in the open. What does LTD stand for? 1. LT's Darling? 2. Limited Area? 3. Long Term Doom? 4. Long The Drillers?