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Politics : RAMTRONIAN's Cache Inn -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trenton A. Scott who wrote (5359)	5/2/1998 10:27:00 PM
From: Gutterball	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14464

Gee Trent, you said a mouthful. Sounds like you better vote your proxy. Speaking of proxies, what did you think of Ramtron's annual report? What it lacked in text, they made up for in design. I vote they give the photoshop specialist a raise and take it out of the brother's consulting fee. At one spot, they said there were seven licensee for FRAM and only mentioned six on the side bar. A slip no doubt. I imagine SGS Thomson is the seventh, but they can't say it. Unless SGS Thomson takes an equity position in Ramtron, there won't be much news when the deal is announced. On another note, the report read like they wanted SGS to build them a new fab. So I guess that question has been settled. It will be interesting to see what Fujitsu says about 1 Mb FRAM this year. This could be exciting. For the most part, I sympathize with your comments but there isn't much we can do about it. Hopefully, someone will come in and clean house. I saw where Jones took a two year contract for the first time in the 10K. Looks like he is trying to protect himself in the event there are any new partnerships. Not having accomplished much last year, they were quick to mention the Siemens license. I wish they would of said more about FRAM. Maybe they don't have anything to report. Looks like Cubic will save their butts there if they ever start shipping in boat loads. Regards,

To: Trenton A. Scott who wrote (5359)	5/2/1998 11:20:00 PM
From: Jonas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14464

Hi Trenton !! 'It's darkest before dawn' they say. Here's the way I see it - the crazy point of view: Rmtr hasn't made a dime in the past...but neither has Rohm produced FRAM commercially in the past - they've only recently started shipping & my impression from reading SEC filings and other material is that rmtr's own production capability is relatively high-cost which of course diminishes the potential market (apart from being limited capacity) but with Rohm having started to ship they are now in a position to really expand their FRAM sales... faintly remember reading Fujitsu wanting to start shipping this year...I already searched but couldn't find such a reference...this is what I expect next... Re ESDRAM How many design wins was it again that rmtr received?...anyway enough for production capacity for ESDRAM to have been been expanded at IBM and there's the Siemens deal now...all this I expect to bear fruit... in $s Another point which is important is that ESDRAM is now pincompatible and has chipset support....plug in ESDRAM and You have a better system...couldn't do that before...also the market didn't have 400MHz+ MPUs on PCs before - it's with this type of clock-speed that high- performance DRAMS such as ESDRAM make sense...so the market segment is growing ...and Alpha will be the first to go to 1 GHz...(the density I believe might be the only problem in the high-end computing segment, but the Siemens deal will hopefully adress this issue in due time) Could say more...but in short sure there are unresolved issues concerning rmtr e.g. rmtr vs. NSM (but it's only a tiny part of rmtr's patent portfolio is that going to kill the co.?) and there are other risks to this co. as an investment - but there've been several developments internal and external to the company that make me believe that a sustainable model is close...largely based on ESDRAM at first...and it's not possible to time when this will start to be discounted in the market or what news it'll take...this is a 'near-venture' situation as described by Lehmann Brothers...which implies a high-risk class where things are more likely to go wrong or take longer than originally anticipated...I expected rmtr to be in the stratosphere this time last year - certainly after the DEC win - but this is a real business things didn't always happen as quickly as expected... Jonas P.S. if anybody's convinced they've made a bad investment in rmtr or that management 'sucks' then that should be a good reason to sell out - nothing worse than having a bad company with bad management in the portfolio - I'm not blaming management for myself having gone in early and I'm not convinced (yet at least)that I've made a bad investment...I'm prepared to wait...

To: Trenton A. Scott who wrote (5359)	5/3/1998 5:20:00 AM
From: NightOwl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 14464

Hello Trenton and all, I must say you sound like an "LA" RAMS Fan. :-) And like them, you have substantial reason to raise these questions as many others have time and time again. As I see it the simple truth is that RMTR does not now and has never been in control of its means of production. Which means its earnings will to a great extent be slow in coming as none of the major manufacturers is that interested in devoting a major portion of their "commodity" production capacity to make someone else's designs when they have royalty free designs of there own for which markets do not have to be "created". Couple this with difficult to produce, albeit excellent technology, like FRAM; an apparent refusal to compete for commodity business with companies like IDTI as production partners on the Enhanced DRAM side; and a lack of a major backer like INTC to force feed the sweetheart license deals down the throats of the memory producers... well the prospectus spells out the risks better than I can. But despite these risks, RMTR has made demonstrated progress and while it is not progress you can measure in earnings it is shown in the fact that they have been able to get ANY licensees to buy into these designs and spend considerable amounts of their own to at least keep a foot in the door as the market develops. The fact that Rohm and IBM are producing commercial, albeit comparatively minor, quantities of these products is confirmation to me that RMTR is not an IDID. With that in mind I am further comforted that the long dark night of my nearly three year wait seems to be approaching an end. At least the folks with the resources to know appear to believe that RMTR's income will take a major turn for the better by the end of the year. And in my view therein lies the justification for the wait. I say this because in the final analysis, it is not RMTR's earnings which will raise its price up from these doldrums. Rather, it is your post and the others like it here and elsewhere that will do that job. RMTR appears to have a niche in one of the sexier segments of the financial market. It has eye popping technology and all that is required to move its price is some whiff of success. SGS-T news as, Dan mentioned may be enough. But I am not counting on that. No I think the market is looking at RMTR and saying: "Hell they sold a boat load of equity to somebody at 4 1/2 just this year. Why should I pay more than that now, when positive earnings aren't expected until the 3rd Qtr. and the money fund "Dream" profits,i.e., the ones that will boost my Morningstar ratings, aren't due to show up until the 4th Qtr.?" The private placement together with the earnings forecasts, IMHO, are like an engraved invitation to money managers to hold off betting the house on this baby until they see some of the uncertainties of the first half pass away. Most mutual fund managers probably won't even think of buying until the 3rd Qtr. and then only if things go according to plan in the meantime. But I still expect to see RMTR beat the estimate for this Qtr by some amount however small. If so, the stock price will rise a little over the 2nd Qtr, but not by much over 6 unless the margin of difference is better than five cent (literally shocking:-) or the SGS-T deal produces an investment. If the 2nd Qtr numbers do not disappoint, the 3rd Qtr will be volatile until the report is in. Rumors and our rampant speculation and fears will do strange things to the stock price. But if the 3rd Qtr numbers come in on the upside as projected, and there is no major bad news that gives doubt to the 4th Qtr projections, I think we will see movement like this company hasn't seen since 1995. A look around the stock market for sexy stock prices with no earnings history whatsoever (and no real hope for any in the short term) is enough for me to think its well worth the risk. I am afraid to state where I think the stock price could go. Lord knows there's enough pressure pent up on this sucker. It seems to me, if I were a money manager looking for a relatively good shot at a major upside surprise in my equity, particularly in the semiconductor sector RMTR would be a stock to watch. And right now it might be a stock to buy, but at no more than 4 1/2. After 5/7 it may not be quite so cheap. Lord knows somebody has been betting Big Time on this puppy in the last 2 months at these prices and it hasn't been us poor little folk as Neil would say. :-) And its not the market makers either or we wouldn't be seeing these ultra low volume days in the mix. I would guess that the majority has gone to the Brokerages which know the stock best. But remember, even if RMTR goes to the moon at the end of the year, will it stay there? Who knows? If SGS-T gets in big time AND 4th Qtr comes in strong,... I'd say we have probably seen the last of 4 1/2. Those two items should be enough to drive the overhang demons into a belated grave without so much as a hickup. If not then I'd say the party will be short lived. The failure to either (1) get refinancing on the line of credit debt by June 30; (2) get an SGS-T or comparable capital commitment from a major semi FAB by the 2nd Qtr. Report (straight licensing deal won't do it in my view); or (3) weak 4th Qtr earnings and we will be making another long climb down the mountain. That's why I think now is the time to buy. If things go well, passing on 4 1/2 will feel just as bad as having watched the money die for the last 3 years. If things progress early but peter out at the end of the year, well there should be enough volatility in the 2nd half to make up for some of the lost opportunity. If things go very badly for the entire remainder of the year... well, I won't have to worry about taxes. 0\|0