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Technology Stocks : HWP -- Hewlett Packard -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (2068)	5/2/1998 11:46:00 PM
From: Jody Ritchie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4722

My gut feeling is HWP will miss. The reason is, I don't think HWP has sold as much Non-PC equipment as we would like. HOWEVER, PC sales have been skyrocketing and who knows how verifone will impact the bottom line. I see those terminals everywhere and it's only a matter of time before the revenue starts streaming in from them. I am an HP employee, but I'm in no position to know the numbers. I, and my coworkers, are not expecting a high profit share for the past 6-months, but I hope we are all disappointed. I can tell you that expenses have been a big concern for the past year and last fall some steps were taken within our division to cut back. The recent stock activity tells me that somebody thinks they know something good. I hope they are right. Jody

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (2068)	5/4/1998 10:56:00 AM
From: Oeconomicus	Respond to of 4722

Frank, if you think there's a decent chance of a retreat to low-mid-60s, why not just buy some puts? If they miss and it falls, use the profits on the puts to buy more stock. If they hit and it runs, you don't miss out on the upside. Of course, you do lose the put premium (less whatever you can dump them for), but that cost would probably be less than the upside you would miss if you sold half and tried to buy it back after a positive surprise. As for predictions, flip a coin (a two headed coin for all the pessimists here who say HWP "always misses"). The only prediction I'll make is that, in the long run, you won't be sorry you held. For the record, my wife works for HWP (also not in a position to know the numbers). Regards, Bob

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (2068)	5/4/1998 12:18:00 PM
From: Vijay Mehta	Respond to of 4722

I think they will just barely miss and come in at $0.76 or so. But after one time charges are excluded, it will be barely above estimates, at $0.79. Note that they had indicated that with the consolidation of NW Printer manufacturing, they'll have a 0.07 charge over the course of this and three more quarters. We'll be hovering around $68-$78 for the next quarter or so. Note that HWP's historical P/E has never been above 25 and we are already there now. I don't see much upside, with current earnings rate. Vijay