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Biotech / Medical : PFE (Pfizer) How high will it go? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Home-Run who wrote (2031)	5/4/1998 4:14:00 PM
From: Anthony Wong	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9523

It will have some short term effect on the stock price, but we have been expecting this all along - scare stories about side effects of Viagra. We know that these stories would come out, and traders would use the opportunity to knock down the price of the stock. The Viagra human trials have not indicated that these problems are long term, so my layman's understanding is that we won't know until at least 4 or 5 years later whether Viagra would have any long term vision effect. The FDA already know about these side effects from the trials. Would they do anything about it on the American Academy of Ophthalmology's concerns? I don't think so.

To: Home-Run who wrote (2031)	5/5/1998 6:45:00 AM
From: Z Analyzer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9523

Here's a shocker! For those wondering why PFE hasn't gone up further despite great prescription numbers, this could explain it. The Viagra related increase in fizer's share price should be the sum of discounted future cash flows. ASSUMPTIONS 1)Viagra sales of $2 bil in 1998, $4 bil in 1999, $6 bil in 2000 to 2009 expiration. 2) EPS increase of $.25 per share per billion. CONCLUSIONS Viagra will bring in REVENUES of just $63 billion (Pfizer's market cap increased by more than $63 bil in just over a year). Viagra's EPS totals just $15.75 per share over its LIFETIME. Applying a 15% discount rate to the earnings stream, produces a present value of $6.37 per share which is the amount investors should be willing to pay for Viagra's earnings stream in addition to Phizer's base business valuation (look at share price before Viagra runup or assume 30 p/e on $2.00 EPS for $60 base). I personally believe that EPS should increase by more than the $.25 per share per billion but even a max of $.40 doesn't alter the conclusion which is that the stock already reflects the hype and irrational valuations unless you believe my revenue figures are GROSSLY understated.