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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: FMK who wrote (2793)	5/4/1998 10:19:00 PM
From: FMK	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

Eye opener - correction for #shares ULBI's offering reminds me of a comparison I once made between VLNC and ULBI. After the recent offering, ULBI has 7.9 plus 2.5 = 10.4 million shares outstanding while Valence has about 23.7 million. It is known that the Valence high speed Italian lines have twice the capacity(batteries/year) as their line 1. Valence's first 3 lines therefore have 5 times the capacity of Valence's line 1 and therefore 5 times the capacity of ULBI's similar solid polymer line from the same Florida manufacturer as Valence's line 1. Comparing Valence's first 3 lines with ULBI's single line and adjusting to a per share basis, (5 x 10.4/23.7 = 2.2), it appears Valence has 2.2 times the solid polymer production capacity per share as ULBI. If you can project earnings according to production capability and can assume that ULBI is fairly priced at $14 , it should be reasonable to conclude that an equivalent price for Valence would be $14 x 2.2 or $31 once they announce contract(s) and get some analyst coverage as ULBI has done. An underlying assumption is that the bulk of ULBI's future earnings will be derived from solid polymer batteries as will be future earnings for Valence. As stated in their press release:"..Lehman sees enormous growth potential over the next several years, fueled by highly promising lithium-ion solid polymer rechargeable batteries." Another way to look at it is that a dollar invested in Valence at $6 buys 14/6 x 2.4 or 5.1 times the solid polymer production capability. Add to the equation the likelyhood that OEM's testing are finding Valence batteries clearly superior. Am I missing something here? Comments or questions? Regards, FMK

To: FMK who wrote (2793)	5/4/1998 10:31:00 PM
From: Tickertype	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

I just read a lengthy battery article in the April 27, 1998 issue of EETimes. The section that deals with Li-Polymer mentions that Yuasa Corp. plans on producing 500,000 Li-polymer cells per month for notebook computers this fall, and expects to ship samples this month. Valence is mentioned as starting production in its Henderson, Nev. facility and also in N.I. this year. But the following comment really caught my eye: "Hitachi-Maxell Inc. has begun mass production of Li-polymer batteries that are 0.5mm thick and flexible to 90 dgrees". If this is true, then somebody is already mass producing Li-polymer. Could this be the battery source for Samsung, maybe? - T -