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To: DMaA who wrote (15420)5/5/1998 11:54:00 AM
From: joe  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 45548
 


>>Last week someone at the Fed "leaks" to the WJS that there is a strong bias towards raising interest. A week later says the same thing ( someone put him up to it?). Something stinks here.
The Fed is definitely trying to tell us something but what?
Can't they find a less destructive way of doing it?<<

yeah, I watch this stuff lately, much more than I watch COMS, partly
because I have to manage my parents account which has Chase
Manhattan Bank (highly interest rate sensitive), and the
regular slew of Blue Chips for semi-fixed income people.

Camdessus and the IMF and maybe the World Bank have all mentioned
at various times over the last 6 months that they think
the US should raise rates. This is because Europe's economy
is accelerating and they're afraid of inflation over there
just as the inflation hawks are here in the US.

I'm not so worried about the Fed after last week, because, even
though they 'took a leak', they pretty much clarify that they
wouldn't raise rates at least in May.

Normally, Camdessus's blurb would be ignorned, but it comes
at bad timing. EU meetings this weekend were very tense.
Germany is pissed as hell and I wouldn't be surprised of some
major move on their part. Tietmeyer speaks at 2:00pm EDT -
I'll check news to see if anything important is said.

One of the things that's important, I think, is that
Denmark raised rates not as protection against inflation, but
as protection against currency devaluation (due to their
high unemployment) -- so the inflation arguement is still
not as strong in Europe as I suspect. Plus England will
be lowering rates soon - good chance.

The Fed usually jerks our chain - I've gotten somewhat used
to that. But EU SPILLOVER IS SOMETHING WE DON'T NEED to
add to our present complexities

(Also, I read this morning, that if it wasn't for Asia
slowdown in buying our exports, our GDP number last
week would have been at 6%. Understandable that the Fed
is worried, but those guys live in the past.
It's a 'new era' as far as I'm concerned - productivity
is at all time highs)

Joe