To: djane who wrote (46066 ) 5/5/1998 10:17:00 PM From: djane Respond to of 61433
thestreet.com on CSCO report. [ASND references] Excerpt: " Cisco is increasing its business with phone carriers, although the hottest segment has cooled somewhat. Rabin says the company likes its relationship with U.S. West (USW:NYSE), but is not as tight with GTE (GTE:NYSE). Ascend is flexing its muscles in this market after merging with Cascade nearly one year ago. Ascend also has landed business with LCI International (LCI:NYSE). But Cisco intends to recover somewhat with phone carriers through its partnership with Ciena (CIEN:Nasdaq), a supplier of bandwidth-boosting components for optical fiber networks. " thestreet.com By Kevin Petrie Staff Reporter 5/5/98 7:49 PM ET Its revenue is bigger than a small country. And that's not the only way Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) looks like the Godzilla of networking. After the bell Tuesday, Cisco cleared Wall Street's expectations with earnings of $483 million, or 45 cents per share, in the fiscal third quarter ended April 25, excluding a fat 39-cent charge from acquisitions. A First Call survey had predicted 44 cents. A year earlier, Cisco posted pro-forma profits of $358 million, or 35 cents per share. Sales climbed 33% to $2.2 billion from $1.6 billion. The upshot: A few blemishes aside, Cisco has broadened its product line through acquisitions and gained market share while rivals struggle to maintain their footing. Down the road, Cisco is expected to snap up more small companies that hold the keys to integrating telephone and computer systems. Its future success also hinges on partnerships and agility -- and its moderate approach to ugly markets like Asia. The scorecard so far is strong. Cisco excelled during a tough season, hit growth targets, compensated for challenges with phone-carrier customers and moved product smoothly. Finally, it bolstered gross margins while upping expenses for expansion and dealing with price competition. Cisco climbed early Tuesday, but profit-taking and general market malaise shaved the stock 1 7/16 to 73 5/8 by the market's close. Shareholders value Cisco at $76.3 billion, or 58 times trailing profits. Competitor Ascend (ASND:Nasdaq), whose market cap is $8.3 billion, ended down 7/8 at 42. 3Com (COMS:Nasdaq), with a market capitalization of $12.3 billion, traded 5/16 lower at 34 7/16. Analyst Bill Rabin at J.P. Morgan, who pegged Cisco's number, notes that the April quarter can be stormy because corporations are slow to start spending annual budgets. J.P. Morgan hasn't performed any recent underwriting for Cisco. "What we know from the channel is that the February month was difficult, and that March and April were better," adds analyst Mike Duran with Lazard Freres, referring to checks he made with Cisco's channel of distributors and resellers prior to the report. Duran's firm hasn't performed any underwriting for Cisco. But in a conference call, CEO John Chambers did take a Microsoftian stance in warning about future pressure. The message: Business is great, but Wall Street shouldn't get overly excited about the company's future. "We remain cautious on the industry growth rates over the next 12 to 18 months," Chambers said, partly because of the slightly "surprising" stumbles of Cisco's rivals. And Cisco might miss estimates down the road because shrunken backlogs and shorter lead times make each quarter harder to predict. However, observers say this leaves room for another pleasant surprise. "That's Chambers' way of giving us [positive] body language," Rabin says. He rates the stock buy and intends to raise his price target to $85 or $90 Wednesday. Cisco trades near his current target. Cisco's quarterly revenue growth of 33% achieved the oft-forecasted industry year-over-year growth rate of 30% to 50%. The book-to-bill ratio remained greater than one, which is a positive indicator that products ordered exceeded sales billed. Cisco is increasing its business with phone carriers, although the hottest segment has cooled somewhat. Rabin says the company likes its relationship with U.S. West (USW:NYSE), but is not as tight with GTE (GTE:NYSE). Ascend is flexing its muscles in this market after merging with Cascade nearly one year ago. Ascend also has landed business with LCI International (LCI:NYSE). But Cisco intends to recover somewhat with phone carriers through its partnership with Ciena (CIEN:Nasdaq), a supplier of bandwidth-boosting components for optical fiber networks. Product flow was smooth. Cisco decreased its day sales outstanding to roughly 52 days from about 56. DSOs measure the length of time the average customer takes to pay his or her bill; a decrease is positive. Despite its prior warnings, Cisco somehow increased gross margins once again, to 65.7% from 65.4% in the January quarter and 65.1% in the October period. It did so by paring engineering and production costs. Electronic sales are another lean way to do business: Cisco is booking more than 52% of its orders on the Internet, up from about 41% in early February. Chambers says Asia, now 11% of revenue, will get worse before it recovers. The Japanese might spend some money on networks in the near term, but the mood there is the most pessimistic Chambers has seen it in 15 years. See Also TOP STORIES Cisco Hits Potholes in Its Push Into the Phone Carrier Market 4/22/98 7 PM TOP STORIES ARCHIVE Cisco Company Quotes c 1998 TheStreet.com, All Rights Reserved. TOP | ABOUT US | CONTENTS | SUBSCRIBE | ADVERTISE | TRADE ONLINE | FEEDBACK | SEARCH | HELP