Jim,
Scott doesn't the NASDQ count buy/sell as two shares ?
Yes they do, but the 4 day period in August represented over 50
million actual shares changing hands. That's a lot of shares for AAPL.
I agree that a lot of people bailed into tax selling, but I think a
sinificant portion came back in in January. Just check the spike on
January 2, below:
DATE CLOSING PRICE OPEN HIGH LOW VOLUME
-------- ------------- -------- -------- -------- -----------
1/21/98 18 7/8 18 3/4 19 1/16 18 9/16 1,698,300
1/20/98 19 1/8 19 1/16 19 5/16 18 5/8 2,156,800
1/16/98 18 13/16 19 7/16 19 7/16 18 11/16 2,199,600
1/15/98 19 3/16 19 3/16 19 3/4 18 5/8 4,993,500
1/14/98 19 3/4 19 7/8 19 15/16 19 1/4 5,261,300
1/13/98 19 1/2 18 5/8 19 5/8 18 1/2 5,686,200
1/12/98 18 1/4 17 7/16 18 5/8 17 1/8 4,610,700
1/09/98 18 3/16 18 1/8 19 3/8 17 1/2 7,915,600
1/08/98 18 3/16 17 7/16 18 5/8 16 15/16 6,915,800
1/07/98 17 1/2 18 13/16 19 17 5/16 9,300,200
1/06/98 18 15/16 15 15/16 20 14 3/4 16,189,500
1/05/98 15 7/8 16 1/2 16 9/16 15 3/16 5,820,300
1/02/98 16 1/4 13 5/8 16 1/4 13 1/2 6,411,700
12/31/97 13 1/8 13 1/8 13 5/8 12 15/16 3,628,200
AAPL spiked 3 points on Jan 2nd, the first trading session of 98'.
That was a Friday. The rally carried up to 19 over the next 9 trading
days, with around 73 million shares traded. I think a portion (but not
all) of this was people that had sold in 97' to take the loss.
I agree that the people buying in August were only buying because they
heard the magic word, "MicroSoft" (basically clueless, with the
exception of day traders). I imagine a lot of the folks on this thread
at that time were already in at between 13-19 and hopefully sold into
the rally.
I defer to your position on the bondholders, as you've taught me more
about AAPL's bond situation than anyone else on this thread (and I
appreciate it).
All in all, I'm not as pessimistic about the current situation as
Alomex, but I agree with him that most of the resistance we've seen up
til' now had a lot to do with the August situation. In the same vein,
I believe there are a lot investors that are hoping lightning will
strike twice, in that, a new Steve Jobs announcement will gap the
stock up 7 points, as it did in August. We all know how often
lightning strikes twice. In a sense, this works against us for
tomorrow and on May 11.
But Apple is in a much different (read better) place than it was in
August. We can't judge it in the same terms. If Steve has the right
stuff up his sleeve, then I think we'll at least go into the 30's in
the next week, and maybe more.
Regarding Gil's book, I take your point. Maybe I'll work a deal with
Eric or Travis.
Regards,
Scott |
