To: jach who wrote (8492 ) 5/5/1998 8:37:00 PM From: Asymmetric Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 12559
Weighing In With My Two Cents, Instead of just short-term focusing at how the stock price reacted, or didnt' react, to today's announcement, maybe another angle might be more productive. One way to look at today's announcement is to look at who the new players are and how quickly the competitive landscape has changed in just two weeks, and what this says about ATM. Last week, the King of the telecomm equipment manufacturers Lucent Technologies weighed in with their $1 billion dollar purchase of Yurie. Today, the King of the PC revolution, none other than Intel, weighed in with their announcement of a cross product, cross marketing agreement with none other than Fore Systems. Both Yurie and Fore were pure plays on ATM, cell based architecture. If that is not a ringing endorsement of the importance of the immediate future deployment of ATM, I don't know what is. Those are the facts - two of THE most important technology companies in the world have made major strategic moves to become players in this area. What does that tell us? Well, it tells me that ATM is going to move from niche technology, to mainstream. Not off somewhere in the distant future - as in recent years past - but NOW. That is the strategic vision I believe we need to hold. Who will be the ultimate winner(s) is yet to be determined. To repeat, the importance of today's announcement was that Fore Systems did not announce their marketing/product agreement with another Telecomm centric corporation, like a Nortel or a Deutsch Telecomm, or an Alcatel, etc, but that the agreement brought in THE major driving force in the PC arena, Intel itself. Another nuance that I picked up on was that Fore stressed they were not selling a technology, but selling a solution product. I think prior to Gill taking over, FORE had this relationship turned around. Fore was selling a technology in search of a solution that needed it. I think this leads to the other strategic vision one needs so as not to sell this stock short (ie early). Through a happy confluence of events, FORE is a refocused company - intent on selling product. They've always had the technology. And what's happened in the marketplace is that users (enterprise companies - ie corporations) are now turning toward ATM as the probable solution for their future WAN/LAN needs. So with the marketplace refocusing on ATM as not A viable solution, but perhaps THE viable solution, and FORE refocused on selling product into the ATM LAN/WAN market, the possibility of FORE actually becoming the company many thought they would be two to three years ago is now very real. It is just possible that Fore is about to enter the sweet spot in the telecommunications marketplace. Just my two cents. Peter.