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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (17999)	5/6/1998 9:27:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 94695

Hi David; I'm convinced the divergence I see is Fund window dressing it wouldn't alarm me as much if the Super Caps were moving up some! but Funds reduce holdins there to grab a fast gainer..up to a point thats OK..but when they start opposing one another the market gets less liquid. It's Ok for the smaller ones to out run the Big boys..but not to good when they go opposite ways it streches the rubber band. Jim

To: Bull RidaH who wrote (17999)	5/12/1998 9:30:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

HI David ; bub bub bub bubble, that is what I think of todays action. The Super caps gained some but still are not above the down trend line ( but close ). I think we have sort of moved into a short term trading range until the FED and interest rate thingy is resolved. Computer program trading was 17.7 % of last weeks NYSE volume..these things are trading stocks lickity split splat against the derivatives on said stocks, sell one buy the other capture the spread. Most of this action in the last few days has been in the basket of stocks in the S&P 100..( OEX ) The rest of the market is sort of chasing this program trading like a greyhound chases a wabbit. This thing is derivative stock spread driven, just like the bookies capture a spread on sports bets. AND it will take a good move, to break the cycle outside of our recent ranges. BUT most any thing could cause that move to happen, yet I don't see much but choppy waters and a slight down pressure due to caution as the big boys are waiting on the FED to make it's stand clear. I'll repeat Most program trading action at this time is in the OEX. Exactly how they are doing this is a little over my head but I can see it clear enough to know that is what's moving the market up/down at this time. ------------- When & if the FED gives the all clear no change in rates sign we will break to the upside for a while, and calling a top won't be easy. Longer range with all the consolidation..I hear of a lot of planed layoffs in the Banking and Tech sector..this may not result in large unemployment but as the work force shifts around it could disrupt the strong flow of money into the 401s and result in a mini crash this summer. The mini crash last OCT did not fully correct the market..and most of the ASIA problem was shruged off..while low oil prices are still helping us out, the oil stocks are still subject to take a hit in the future as their past run up was based on a lot higher oil prices and we will likely pay for all these things on the next down turn. Meanwhile we sit just below the pivot point of going on up,.. or flying south, twiddling our thumbs waiting on the Fed..and watching the computer trading programs jack with the market. Is this coverage comprehensive enough ? <G> Jim PS Jim is a strategist, and believes while some TA may be OK BUT not when it's done on index as any index can be very missleading..to much foam and froth..but comparing one index to another is not the same thing. FA makes news, but in this ponzi scheme called a stock market it just creates the dream for the naive to chase.