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To: K. M. Strickler who wrote (40607)	5/6/1998 3:10:00 PM
From: Fli-by	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Ken; I could hear my father speaking to me over 30 years ago as I was reading your note..THANK YOU..I don't have him to tell me what to do anymore...and he seemed to always be right...Why didn't I listen to him. Fli-by

To: K. M. Strickler who wrote (40607)	5/6/1998 3:29:00 PM
From: freeus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Ken, What a great post! We would never invest at all if we were constantly expecting a big bear market. We would be afraid of anything but utilities...and guess what I lost big on Tucson Electric Power years ago. Investing and hoping goes together: if it doesnt work it doesnt but if it does, what joy. I also agree that at least some money should be spent having fun. You never know what is going to happen tomorrow. I can remember when I was 18 I tried on a prom dress at my friends house and I was standing too close to the open heater and the dress caught fire. As I stood there )(I could onlyi remember "dont run" I couldnt remember "roll in a rug") I thought "Oh my 18 is young to die, I wish I'd gone to more parties and had more fun." I didnt think "I wish I'd saved or studied more"!!!!! Freeus

To: K. M. Strickler who wrote (40607)	5/6/1998 4:00:00 PM
From: Jim Patterson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

re: When I started investing, 100 million was a really big day - not any more! etc....... Yes there are things that have changed. Volume commissions, Where / how you trade, the changes in these methods are not important. Technology change is not important. In 1928, the telephone was the new technology, I think the computer is nothing compared to the telephone in terms of evolutionary technology. As for valuation measures, They are not important in and of them selves. What the valuation measures tell us is where we are in the CYCLE that never changes. The valuation cycle goes up and it goes down. If these numbers were low, and going lower, then we would know we were approaching the end of the decline. Conversely they are high and going higher. This means we are getting closer to the end of the up cycle. That never changes. As for those that were always preparing for the worst that never came, The reason it never came is they never let things get out of hand. By never letting the country get ahead of itself, they built a huge foundation for the baby boomers to run amuck. These boomers do not prepare for anything. Just as generations before them in a similar situation did. Times change, People don't. We get smarter, and like to think we are smarter than those that came before us. But those that came before us were smarter too. They inevitably made some mistake that we are convinced we can avoid because we are smarter. Well just as those before us prevented disaster by preparing for it, Today, We will cause disaster simply by not expecting it. Today's focus on inflation will make sure we don't have an inflation problem. The problem is that in our efforts to avoid inflation, the powers that be will most likely cause Deflation. An enemy that is just as evil as the other. But we have spent a generation dealing with the opposite. When Deflation shows up "in the numbers", it will be way to late to reverse the trend which no one knows how to stop. WW II is what really got the US out of it last time. I don't know about you, but I don't want to have to go through that. These are the things that never change; People, Fear, Greed, Hope, Dispare, complatency. These are what ultimately guide the market. They don't change, we can't stop them. Your dad will ultimately be right. He may or may not be here when it happens, The all time great "I told you so." I hope All those that think this way are here to say that. One think is for certain, You and I will be here. We will have a myriad of ways to deal with it. I hope we all choose the correct methods. Jim

To: K. M. Strickler who wrote (40607)	5/7/1998 10:43:00 AM
From: jbn3	Respond to of 176387

Ken, Nice post! I have to smile when the 'sky is falling' proponents use the 'earth gets hit by a meteor' cataclysm argument for what may happen to the market. If that should, in fact, happen, it seems very likely to me that the markets are going to be a very unimportant facet of existence. Survivors are much more likely to be back on a barter basis than trading on the NYSE. Also, your statement, You paid a 'ton' in commissions - not any more!, is truer than anyone could have imagined even a year ago: just this morning one of the new brokerages was advertising commissionless trading on CNBC (not sure how they make money on that <g>). Just a couple of years ago, day-trading was an arcane subject practiced only by professionals, usually in brokerage offices. As you point out, that has changed. I believe that the tremendous increase in daily average number of shares traded on the exchanges over the past few years is due primarily to the increase in PC-based day-trading from one's home, both as a vocation and as an avocation. Like your father, my Aunt is rather conservative (although she did buy some DELL at my recommendation): she told me recently that she just cashed in a bunch of old savings bonds.... "The times, they are a-changin'" -- technology is the engine and the train has barely left the station. Thanks, 3