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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Trocchi who wrote (8516)	5/7/1998 10:43:00 AM
From: Roger A. Babb	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

Bob, I have been called worse.......

To: Bob Trocchi who wrote (8516)	5/8/1998 11:16:00 AM
From: BDR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 18691

Re: ZONA The run up baffles me given what little solid data exists regarding Vasomax. I suspect it will make a good short. Here is my take on timing this one, FWIW: Right now it is riding the coattails of Viagra and that may continue for the next month but I imagine we have seen the bulk of the "Viagra effect" by now. In a month we should be hearing some feedback from patients about their level of satisfaction with Viagra, refill rates on scrips, etc. A poor showing for Viagra may be a plus for Vasomax as the alternative unless people realize that- 1) the response rates are even worse for Vasomax and 2) ZONA hasn't even begun to apply to the FDA. A blizzard of press releases could paper over those small details. If Viagra has really high acceptance rates that may still be good for a coattail effect but, unless the side effects are worse than they appear, "who needs Vasomax?" may be the response. In four weeks there will be presentations on Viagra, MUSE and Vasomax at the AUA annual meeting in San Diego, most likely all on the same day and in the same room. ZONA may be able to garner enough press coverage at that event to help the stock price but it will be a two edged sword. The data they are presenting are not that great. It may become clear that ZONA will be second to the market a year late with the second best product assuming they can get FDA approval. I plan to watch and wait until after the AUA meeting to see how things play out before considering a short. Until then I can't see much that will bring ZONA down (no revenues, ergo no revenue disappointments, no FDA application, ergo no FDA rejections) and several things that could add further to the run upward. From June onward the stock is going to have stand on its own merits and that is when I might short it.