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Biotech / Medical : Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Bogdanoff who wrote (1973)	5/7/1998 2:34:00 PM
From: sds	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4676

David, I still disagree with you, ENMD's spike was not all that irrational. People thought they had discovered THE cure for cancer. If this would turn out to be true, what price would be too high for the stock? Furthermore, the spike was precipitated by the fact that we are talking about cancer here. The only diseases that would have an equal impact would be AIDS (maybe), diabetes, and heart disease. I still say it is almost impossible to see a similiar spike in ISIP. At the peak, ENMD hit 85 a share -- a 600% move over Friday's close. There is NOTHING that Isis has that could precipitate that kind of move. A buyout? A fair price for Isis right now would be in the $20 range. A ridiculous, but possible, price could be near $30 -- that's a double, but it's not close to 600%. Mice effects ARE very meaningful. If a drug does nothing in mice, it almost never makes it to monkeys or humans. The fact that something does work in mice proves little, but it does validate higher-mammal testing. If you crap-out on the mouse model, you very rarely proceed beyond that. Also, the nature of tumors introduced into mice is such that a cancer drug will usually perform better in the mouse than a human -- ergo, it makes little sense to hope that Isis's cancer drugs will work better in humans than they did in the mouse. Again, there is nothing in Isis that could lead to a one-day greater-than-100% move. The cancer drugs? Everybody knows about them. A buyout? Buyouts are rare in biotech, and Isis isn't an especially good candidate anyway. While spikes like ENMD are abberations and overreactions, there is almost always some fundamental story underneath (K-Tel not withstanding...) In the case of ENMD, the prospect of a cancer cure moved the stock. For GERN, it was the promise of anti-aging treatments. What is there for Isis? sds