To: qcom who wrote (10470 ) 5/7/1998 11:52:00 AM From: shane forbes Respond to of 10836
Software Industry update from Briefing.com: ---- Comment: As we expected, the software group did quite well over the past few months as fears over Asia gave way to the realities of much better than market sales/earnings growth. Even the relational database companies have firmed a bit, particularly Informix which has had a good run so far this year. While we remain very optimistic over the industry's prospects for the long-term, an overbought market tone, the threat of higher interest rates and relatively rich multiples compel us to downgrade the group's short-term rating from 1 to 2. Conversely, we are upping our long-term rating from 2 to 1 now that the Asian crisis looks to be contained. In fact, to date the surprisingly strong domestic economy and a resurgent European markets have largely offset the weakness seen out of Asia. In addition, demand for sub-$1000 PCs continues to drive consumer interest, which will lead to solid sales of operating systems, games and applications. Barring action from the DOJ, MSFT is set to unveil its Windows 98 OS in June, which will give the stock and the industry a solid boost. Internet-related firms will fare well, as will those companies providing Y2K solutions. Finally, the technical tone of the group's leaders remains decidedly bullish. In sum, we contend that the group has had a very good run and that pace of gains going forward (over the next few months) will slow a bit. Long-term, we expect the group to post average annual earnings growth of near 20%, well above the market rate. As such the industry will remain one of the market's top performers. Stocks: Adobe Systems (ADBE), America Online (AOL), Autodesk (ADSK), Automatic Data Processing (AUD), BBN Corp. (BBN), BMC Software (BMCS), Borland International (BORL), Broderbund (BROD), Ceridian (CEN), Computer Associates (CA), Computer Sciences (CSC), Forte Systems (FRTE), Informix (IFMX), Intuit (INTU), Microsoft (MSFT), Netscape (NSCP), Network Associates (NETA), Novell (NOVL), Oracle (ORCL), Parametric Technologies (PMTC) , PeopleSoft (PSFT), Sybase (SYBS), Symantec (SYMC), System Software (SSAX) --- Shane. (and 18-22 sounds good to me!)