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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (5332)	5/8/1998 3:58:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

re: Wouldn't someone know about this before now? No. In country after country, the real size of the debt load doesn't become public knowledge until the midst of a liquidity crisis. Noone seems to know who owes what until they stop making payments. Creative accounting is the norm. Save face, pretend everything is OK, don't embarress anyone by liquidating insolvent companies, keep dud loans on the books. Japan has been doing it for 8 years now, and they're masters at it. I've read from several sources that the net worth of the Japanese banking sector is negative when the Nikkei falls below 15,000.

To: MikeM54321 who wrote (5332)	5/8/1998 9:42:00 AM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10921

Directly from Applied Materials latest 10-Q: >>The decrease in new orders is primarily attributable to softening demand for the Company's equipment from DRAM manufacturers located in Asia. The continued weakness in DRAM prices, driven by excess capacity, and recent FINANCING DIFFICULTIES (I added caps for those who don't think Asian problems are important) in Korea and Japan, are causing many of the Company's DRAM customers to defer their capital spending.<< 50% of AMAT's sales are derived directly from the Asian Tigers. I was a little surprised at this fact so I thought I would post it. I always estimated it to be around 30%. Asia is a lot more important to this leading semi-equipment manufacturer than I thought. Here's the exact breakdown: Japan 13.1% Korea 6.4% Taiwan 28.6% Asia-Pacific 2.4% Total is 50.5% It will be very interesting to listen to AMAT's conference call to see what they say about Asia once again. They announce next week, on Wednesday, I think. What is definitely a sign, it may not be all that bad, are the recent upgrades by some analysts. I'm certain the analysts didn't raise for no reason at all. They must have had some guidance from AMAT(IMHO). MikeM(From Florida)