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Strategies & Market Trends : Point and Figure Charting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. BSL who wrote (2875)	5/8/1998 11:20:00 PM
From: Ms. X	Respond to of 34810

PERSPECTIVE: HOW LONG WILL IT LAST? Part-1 One of the questions we often get is "When will the NYSE Bullish Percent reverse down?" Unfortunately we do not have a crystal ball and while we would like to know exactly when the NYSE Bullish Percent will reverse down, we can still glean a lot by the chart. The first thing we learn by looking at the chart is that it is at 74% and in the "Red Zone." The "Red Zone" signifies high risk to us. It does not mean the Dow Jones can't go further but it means that we need to be more cautious in our portfolio approaches. Looking at the chart we also see that 74% is extended compared to previous tops in the market. For instance, in October 1997 the NYSE BP got to 76%, in February 1994 it only got to 66%, in October 1989 it got to 74%, and in 1987 the highest was 76%. This data also gives you reason to be more cautious in your portfolio approach. As to when the NYSE Bullish Percent will reverse down, we don't know the answer to the that question. We can however look at past times the NYSE Bullish Percent has been above 70% to give us an idea of how long it lingers above the 70% before a reversal down ensues. Since 1955 there have been 28 times the NYSE Bullish Percent has hit 70% including this most recent time. The average time the NYSE BP remained in a column of X's after initially hitting 70% before reversing down to column of O's was 3.46 months. After hitting 70% the NYSE BP remained above the 70% mark for an average of 4.6 months. The NYSE Bullish Percent use to go to the 80% and the 10% levels routinely in the 50's and the 60's so we also looked at the trend since 1980. Amazingly enough, the same averages held true. After hitting 70% the NYSE BP stayed in a column of X's for an average of 3.4 months and it remained above the 70% level for an average of 4.6 months. The longest span for the NYSE Bullish Percent to hit 70% was between March 1991 and June 1997. The only other two times that came close to this were the February 1972 to February 1975 time span and the October '82 to January '86 area. Part-2 Message 4389833

To: Mr. BSL who wrote (2875)	5/8/1998 11:21:00 PM
From: Ms. X	Respond to of 34810

PERSPECTIVE: Part -2 Let's look a couple of different times. In November 1968 the NYSE Bullish Percent hit 70% and rallied to 78% in December 1968. The Dow Jones was in the 990 area at that time. In January 1969, after only being above 70% for a few months, the NYSE BP rolled over and we had a quick 9% hit in the Dow Jones. It took the NYSE BP a couple more months to finally go below 30% and actually hitting 10%. By this point the Dow was off 19%. That is very much like the 1989 market scenario. In 1989 the NYSE Bullish Percent hit 70% in July 1989. It move to 74% by September and then reversed down in October 1989. The NYSE BP made another lower top and a year later the Dow Jones was down 15% by October 1990 when the NYSE Bullish Percent bottomed at 18%. There have been a couple of times when the NYSE BP has remained above 70% for a year like June '58 to June '59. During that time the DJIA rallied from the 462 area to the 678 area, that's a 47% gain!!! The DJIA languished around in the 600 area and in October 1960 it hit 32% and the DJIA was at 564, a 17% drop. That's a very similar scenario to the 1982 to 1983 market. During 1982 to 1983 the NYSE Bullish Percent remained above 70% for a year. What does all of this information tell us? First of all, dance with the one who brung ya. The indicators have been great to us for over twenty years and they have with stood the test time during all different types of markets from the 1950's to now. They have keep on the right side of the market and told us how to appropriately manage the trade. With the NYSE Bullish Percent above the 70% mark and the Optionable Bullish Percent having reversed down to Bear Alert status, you need to be nimble. If you are initiating trades today, you must make sure the odds are stacked in your favor. Have your stop loss points set to know what you will do if things go wrong. For some accounts you may want to hedge in some manner. If the market corrects from here, make sure the stocks you are buying are ones that you can life with. For some people that maybe the newest tech company out in Silicon Valley with the greatest widget ever but for most people, a stock they can live with is more along the lines of McDonalds (MCD) or General Electric (GE). Make sure you understand that things can change fast up here. We don't know how long it will be before the NYSE Bullish Percent will reverse down, but we do know that the short term Optionable Bullish Percent has already reversed down. When it reverses down we will take a much more defensive posture. At that point we would rather lose opportunity than money. Remember, it's okay to be wrong but not to stay wrong and that's the beauty of the bullish percents. If the NYSE BP reverses down and then a couple of months later enough new buy signals are given to reverse the indicator up, then we will take possession of the football again. There is no use in predicting, what is, is and that is how we will govern ourselves. Stick to your game plan, educate yourself and you will be able to handle any type of situation that is thrown at you. Part-3 Message 4389899

To: Mr. BSL who wrote (2875)	5/8/1998 11:29:00 PM
From: Ms. X	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 34810

PERSPECTIVE: Part-3 LENGTH OF STAY AT 70% IN THE NYSE BULLISH PERCENT First First Months Moved Total Months hit 70% Rev. Dwn Before Rev. Below 70% Above 70% Jun. '58 Oct. '58 5 mo. June '59 12 mo. Jan. '61 Apr. '61 4 mo. May '61 5 mo. Jan. '63 Mar. '63 3 mo. Oct. '63 10 mo. Mar. '64 Jun. '64 4 mo. Jun. '64 4 mo. Oct. '64 Dec. '64 3 mo. Dec. '64 3 mo. Feb. '65 Jun. '64 5 mo. Feb. '65 5 mo. Oct. '65 Feb. '66 5 mo. Mar. '66 6 mo. Jan. '67 Jun. '67 6 mo. Jun. '67 6 mo. Aug. '67 Aug. '67 1 mo. Aug. '67 1 mo. Jun. '68 Jul. '68 1 mo. Jul. '68 1 mo. Nov. '68 Jan. '69 3 mo. Jan. '69 3 mo. Oct. '70 Oct. '70 1 mo. Oct. '70 1 mo. Nov. '70 May '71 7 mo. Jun. '71 8 mo. Feb. '72 Apr. '72 3 mo. Apr. '72 3 mo. Feb. '75 Jul. '75 6 mo. Aug. '75 7 mo. Jan. '76 Apr. '76 4 mo. Jun. '76 6 mo. Jan. '77 Apr. '77 4 mo. Apr. '77 4 mo. May '78 Jul. '78 3 mo. Oct. '78 6 mo. Sep. '79 Oct. '79 2 mo. Oct. '79 2 mo. Aug. '80 Oct. '80 3 mo. Oct. '80 3 mo. Oct. '82 Nov. '82 2 mo. Aug. '83 11 mo. Jan. '86 May '86 5 mo. May '86 5 mo. Feb. '87 Apr. '87 3 mo. Apr. '87 3 mo. Mar. '88 May '88 3 mo. May '88 3 mo. Jul. '89 Oct. '89 4 mo. Oct. '89 4 mo. Mar. '91 May '91 3 mo. May '91 3 mo. Jun. '97 Sep '97 4 mo. Oct. '97 5 mo. Mar.'98 ??? ??? ??? ???