Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Rational Analyst -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HeyRainier who wrote (895)	5/9/1998 2:04:00 AM
From: Galirayo	Respond to of 1720

Did you tell any one you were going for ... Mexican on your B-Day? Just Curious. Ray Disclaimer: I'm testing my psyc abilities. Call 1-800-555-1212 for your Astro Logical Chart. I guess my abilities could be better since I wished you a Belated B-Day. So call now .. I need the practice.

To: HeyRainier who wrote (895)	5/9/1998 4:07:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Respond to of 1720

Rainier Trinidad-- I hope you may find this interesting- What takes to kill a raging bull.. reasons of lack of selling and buying. Russell-- Imagine if you are AG (by the way AG is long) what you will ideally like is- Slow and steady progress. Markets have brought about a virtuous cycle it can turn to vicious if handled improperly. To keep economy over heating under check- his favorite numbers are ECI and NAPM prices paid and deliveries, based on these numbers alone I doubt that FOMC meeting on 19th does something foolish, unless CPI is bad on 13th. For anyone long, I would like market not to explode to 10000 but rather earnings should lead the market higher, for me ideal would be back and fill. A drop to highs of last move will be a very good consolidation. Markets like this do not sell as a result of one number, it is bound to be an external factor like alleviation of Clinton's problems or Democrats taking control of two houses, Russia's instability or DOJ hitting at MSFT strong. For bulls like us the only chance is to watch out for that external factor and pray that we get enough forewarning. The best bet is to keep some positions as a insurance running all the time, this is what a hedge fund does. Like Sept 1020 and 850 combo 170 points spread--- sell two and buy one and forget worries about that huge downside. Last time we had a bear phase it was post Iraq invasion in 90. Once a big external factors 10-G type of force hits a running bull like this- the change in sentiment and selling attracting more selling may lead to demise of bull - as this bull is also behind low bond yields and balanced budget. Sudden demise of the bull will be also exact heavy toll on economy. Take 100 billion $'s out of US budget coming from capital gains and additional wealth and you are back in square one, big deficits will lead to higher interest rates which will further pressure the market down. A short drop will not hurt this market too much but give me a sustained drop of 1500 points over two quarters and you have a setting for that big bear phase. In Oct I had spent a lot of time on Kahuna thread-- I mistakenly believed then that 'bears and bulls' is not a state of mind, for me I wanted to learn and know the view point of other people who look at things differently. After few days in company of bears I realized that to be short has something to do with state of mind. In view of evidence we have one cannot think otherwise of a bunch unable to identify opportunity and continue with bear-x even on Oct 28th when we traded at 6950 briefly. On days like yesterday we defend our territory because we believe that market from 5500 break is here on merits, it has been all along strong economy which has driven the market higher. I am seeing with some worry 'bears' inability to rattle the market. The integral consolidation part of market is the future pits, where 'unfounded fears' lead to some huge selling even that lately has not been matched by cash selling. It appears that the short sellers are quite worried-imagine yesterday on globex before the number SPM was 4.8 points higher on a 4.3% number I expected SPM to be hitting 1092 but it did not, no one had the guts to sell in a strong number, the new level of awareness that corporate profits thrive on strong number it seems have now been delivered to 'bears den'. I would concede that this inability to break through major supports is disturbing for self styled intelligent bulls, we need Kurlack's and others like DOJ's to keep pricking the market, without this the bulls will become complacent. However, I console my self when I see that to get this big break we need Citicorp dropping to 120 or WFC to 295 or BKX to 690 where some geniuses were shorting it. After this recent spate of mergers I would just think that BKX to trade lower to Jan level will require two or three interest rates rise. Also, someone who has made 50$ on WFC has the capacity to hold it until 300$ where he bought it, so he is not intimidated by few points move down. Experience has taught him that once you get out of good entry level, you are out of the game. Re-entry in prime assets is a problem and that leads to lackluster selling. We had a good earning season soon in 15-25 days time pre-announcements will start where some sectors and stocks will come under pressure, anyone buying here should not expect the kind of returns market has had so far. It is natural one should expect some reluctance on part of new buyers. I think wherever opportunities exist those sectors did well stocks like INTC, TXN, ASND, JBIL. Still DOJ decision is awaited on MSFT but I would think that their bluff will be called in soon they have to show their hand.

To: HeyRainier who wrote (895)	5/9/1998 9:06:00 AM
From: majormember	Respond to of 1720

[VCR] Rainier, Glad to have you back from your party... Came across chart for VCR, which seems to be in a breakout pattern even to my inexperienced TA eyes. If you have the time, I wonder if I could get your thoughts. chart4.bigcharts.com Regards, Skane

To: HeyRainier who wrote (895)	5/9/1998 11:15:00 PM
From: Cornstock	Respond to of 1720

[Happy Birthday] Rainier, better late than never. I see you had a good one. I'm glad. Sorry I was not able to send this on the important day. Happy Birthday!