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Strategies & Market Trends : JAPAN-Nikkei-Time to go back up? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chirodoc who wrote (988)	5/10/1998 11:00:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3902

As I said in the sentence of mine that you quoted, if Business Week is calling Japan terrible, it must be about time for things to start turning around. I didn't say anything about putting money into the Japanese stock market, which I think will go lower. But the amount of attention that is being brought to the problems (from within as well as outside Japan) is at least a start. In this week's issue of The Economist, there are two articles on the U.S. economy and stock market, pointing out what so many of us recognize, how inflated equity prices are and how dangerously high expectations are for continued prosperity. In last week's Barron's was a table showing how much money has flowed into the U. S. market from outside the country. Some of the money that Japanese depositors are transferring to U. S. banks may also get into equities and keep the bubble going for a while. When the U. S. market collapses, I would think that it would bring Japan down somewhat more. So it may pay to wait a while longer before getting into the Japanese stock market. What you say about getting in too soon, however, is not entirely true. Scaling into a declining market is one of the best ways of getting a feel for just how low it can go before it turns around. Those who wait too long for a confirmed uptrend miss the best percentage gains. I think I will soon start scaling into some of the closed-end Asia funds selling at a discount, including those that have Japanese holdings. By "soon" I mean in the next few months.