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Technology Stocks : TAVA Technologies (TAVA-NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: C.K. Houston who wrote (16350)	5/10/1998 7:02:00 PM
From: Jeffrey L. Henken	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 31646

I enjoyed reading all of this CK as it portends well for the future for TAVA longs. All except for the idiotic expect the unexpected article. *If you Expect the Unexpected* then even that is expected and already built into the market.** Yes I'm certain that will at some point in time get a major correction in the market and Y2K deadline problems are as good a reason as any for that to happen. I'm even more certain that much of corporate America is ignoring at least to a certain degree the the full impact of Y2K problems as it may impact their individual businesses. But to predict a 30% market correction on the basis of a Y2K problems which will never become fully apparent until the millennium change is nonsense. Even predicting a correction based on the expense to corporate America of avoiding Y2K problems is ridiculous. Corrections of that magnitude come from out of left field and are totally unpredictable as investors begin to feel invincible in their money making capacity. Can corrections sometimes be predicted? If they are it's usually based of luck rather than a person's ability to forecast the future. Just my opinion. Anyway I'm looking forward to a great week for TAVA longs. GO TAVA! Regards, Jeff

To: C.K. Houston who wrote (16350)	5/11/1998 9:08:00 AM
From: jwk	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 31646

>>>>> Embedded systems, interdependencies and cascading problems dominates his presentation. <<<< In my line of reasoning on the y2k situation, this is the crux of the situation. Cascading problems from critical interdependencies are the true problem. A major market correction will not be the result of physical factors. It will result of irrational decisions ( panic) which sweep through the market when y2k glitches disrupt and shake the foundational belief structure of millions of investors. The physical disruptions of y2k glitches, as troubling as some might be, will only be the catalyst for the real y2k problems --- PEOPLE'S PERCEPTION OF AND REACTION TO THEIR LIMITED UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT IS TAKING PLACE It serves little use to sit back in comfort now and caluclate numbers to show the market need not correct much due to y2k influences. If disruptions and glitches produce enough stress, anxiety, uncertainty, fear, irrational thinking, and ......... panic --- in enough investors, then all bets are off. Now then, I don't know for certain that this is going to happen. Can anyone guarantee, though, that it will not? Let me just one more time point to the situation a DIA a couple of weeks ago where one mechanical problem on one train caused a cascading series of potentally life threatening situations which lasted over seven hours and negatively impacted thousands of people not directly connected th the origianl glitch. That event took place in excellent weather with the full support of an unaffected and intact infastructure working to correct the problem. It was bad, and they were lucky. How many times have we seen tragic reports of crowds turned to mobs by panic with the irrational result of trampling many to death when all could have been avoided had people remained calm (rational) and exited quickly in an orderly manner? Step back from focusing on y2k glitches and spend a little time considering whether or not enough people in our society are likely to behave irrationally (fear & panic) when the certanties of the world they know and trust become less certain.