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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Habib who wrote (13303)	5/10/1998 3:26:00 PM
From: David Semoreson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213182

>>Given that pure earnings growth should be able to get us into the high 30's, perhaps low 40's. You might notice that implied volatilities of 99 leaps is dropping nearly 5% per week signalling that the street doesn't foresee substantial price changes in Apples future.<< Richard, I totally agree with your thoughts here. Now, what can make people change their minds --> growing market share, Rhapsody success, significant partnerships? BTW, how do you track changes in implied volatility on leaps? is there a website or are you doing it yourself? ** David

To: Richard Habib who wrote (13303)	5/10/1998 3:45:00 PM
From: Michael Feldstein	Respond to of 213182

Speaking of Apple's circumstances being different from other boxmakers, how might Apple's software business affect the Street's perceptions of a fair PE (long term)? Suppose Apple licenses Rhapsody. Or suppose they sell Final Cut. What are the margins like on software vs. hardware? What are the PEs like? I guess what I'm really asking is whether Monday's announcements could potentially affect the companies to which Apple is compared. Right now the benchmarks are DELL, CPQ, GTW, etc. How about MSFT, ADBE, etc.?

To: Richard Habib who wrote (13303)	5/10/1998 3:47:00 PM
From: Zen Dollar Round	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 213182

Phillip, our problem is that Apple circumstances are different than the other boxmakers. Even when we get the growth that I think everyone here expects; I certainly do, Apple still may not be awarded a PE much above where we're at. Why, because for every analyst that believes a true PE is warranted there will be 2 on the steet who believe Apple is simply refreshing it's existing base which may or may not still be shrinking slowly, ie. the company is still dying. Quite true. Apple really needs to grow market share again, and the future of the Mac OS and Rhapsody are critical for this. We got some indication that market share went up last quarter to 4.0%, but the trend has to continue for the buying public and developers to get back on the bandwagon. I still hear the great unwashed say things like "isn't Apple going out of business?" and "didn't Apple file for bankruptcy?".

To: Richard Habib who wrote (13303)	5/11/1998 9:00:00 AM
From: Phillip C. Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 213182

<<Apple still may not be awarded a PE much above where we're at. Why, because for every analyst that believes a true PE is warranted there will be 2 on the steet who believe Apple is simply refreshing it's existing base which may or may not still be shrinking slowly, ie. the company is still dying. Given that pure earnings growth should be able to get us into the high 30's, perhaps low 40's. You might notice that implied volatilities of 99 leaps is dropping nearly 5% per week signalling that the street doesn't foresee substantial price changes in Apples future.>> Richard, I believe Apple will definitely pick up the marketshare as iMac starts selling in the market. Remember, there is about 40% of marketshare belonging to sub-$1000 pc's. It's not difficult for Apple to pick up 10% of sub-$1000 pc's marketshare, which is equivalent to about 4% of overall marketshare. Using '99 leap's volatilities to judge the future price is not that reliable since they are usually still involved in many factors. Besides, the more stable Leap prices indicate Apple is in the waiting and consolidation mode. Phil