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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Worswick who wrote (3480)	5/11/1998 1:12:00 PM
From: peter michaelson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

Worswick: You didn't mention almost all of Africa which, IMO, must un-do the boundaries pencilled in by the colonial powers before any lasting progress can be made. We have ethnic groups divided between different countries, and countries divided between ethnic groups. The factions within a country argue among themselves, and align with their ethnic brethren across borders. Latest example is Rwanda/Congo, but there are many. Still today, the former colonialists support the boundaries they drew through aid and weapons. But as the sense of connection and responsibility fades the support will be withdrawn and civil war and famine will overtake the continent before a new era can begin. I think so anyway, but I hope not. I do think that the longer view of history is useful, except that it takes a long time for predictions to unfold. We are still moving out of the colonial era, and the new one has yet to begin. One hope I do have is that the one-world movement, brought on by electronic communications, will diminish the power of ethnicity among each successive generation. Peter

To: Worswick who wrote (3480)	5/11/1998 1:25:00 PM
From: Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9980

Worswick, Speaking of re-inventing, does anyone know where one might find comparative data on the percent of development stage business out of the whole today versus some times in the past. Or employment in, or what have you? The reason I ask is, say the Fed does tighten, what effect does that have on the current boom. Housing, auto, consumer electronics, textiles get hurt. Venture capital firms that have not committed to make profits until year 2000 move along on their stored cash. Result, we buy less of the products produced in the Pacific Rim (perhaps more from that region depending on currency effects). Also, employment moves more quickly into the "new" businesses, we accelerate our transition. Does this support the classic free trade case, each builds that at which one is best, (Developed economies new industries, developing economies developed industries). Or does this support continued growth of US cultural imperialism as much of what is new is Internet / Biotech based which has a decidedly US flavour to it. Perhaps it supports both. Simple speculation through my US based glasses. Best, Lee

To: Worswick who wrote (3480)	5/11/1998 5:00:00 PM
From: Bonnie Bear	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9980

OK folks, India just blew up underground nukes on the Pakistan border after telling the world that China was its biggest threat. The plot thickens....care to speculate on this, Worswick?

To: Worswick who wrote (3480)	5/13/1998 5:11:00 AM
From: Thomas Haegin	Respond to of 9980

Worswick, your post #3480 is impressive: Why do the Europeans succeed to live together relatively well, besides struggles over naming a president for the European Central Bank <g>. Is it because we have relatively small political "units" like Luxemburg, Switzerland, even Germany is small in comparison with India of Indonesia. Because religion and a history of 500+ years "unites" us, over all intermittent wars, etc.? Maybe so, as Jugoslawia was completely torn apart by ethnic and religious differences. I don't know, maybe the big Asian nations are indeeddue for falling apart. Anyway, if I'd be a Chinese in Indonesia right now, I would emigrate as soon as possible... As an aside, I doubt though that Siberia will get an independence movement going to split from the Russian Federation in earnest. They do have considerable leeway already under the present constitution for administering their oblasts. BWDIK. Best, Thomas