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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mark who wrote (2124)	5/12/1998 7:38:00 PM
From: Torben Noerup Nielsen	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 5944

Mark, I read your post with interest and I think you make a very rational case for selling or at least not buying at this level. However, while I won't buy any more, I do not think I will sell any either. I'm basing this more on a gut feeling than anything else. I keep thinking about all of those spinning disks out there. More are added every day. And for the high end servers, it pretty much has to be some form of SCSI or fiber channel. And in those areas, I still think Adaptec has the high ground. As I keep saying, there is also 1394. I personally think it will end up being very big in time. Moreover, I believe that Adaptec is well positioned to take advantage of developments in this direction. In terms of the biggest market, I would say that it will be inside the box where cost is an issue and that will eventually be 1394. It'll take some time though. A major driver will be a demand for better multimedia capabilities. Cost will be an issue here, but there is no reason 1394 cannot be made quite cheap; it is really intended to be. Even so, there will be a lot of profit since a lot of chips will be used. Outside the box, it has to be SCSI for the short term and fiber channel for the longer haul. I do not see any question here. IDE of any kind is simply out. Note that SCSI-3 can go pretty high in capacity too and I'm not entirely convinced that fiber channel is a better bet in all cases. Either way, Adaptec is there. Unfortunately, I'm not much of a financial analyst. My knowledge in that area is extremely limited. Close to nonexistent actually :-) I just happen to have a gut feeling that Adaptec will do well over time. And if I'm wrong, it'll cost me a lot of money and I'll be kicking myself repeatedly for not selling when you pointed out how strong a sell it is! Oh well, we shall see. It'll be particularly interesting to see if Adaptec makes the estimates for the current quarter. Thanks, Torben