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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Aegis who wrote (19338)	5/12/1998 6:37:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

this thing will test the lows this summer. if you know amat or have followed the company in the past iprobably the most cautious or negative calls on the company. take for granted , most of the past eps have been very strong. if you are looking for a quick recovery, its not happening. we have a ways to go. my feeling is in the last three weeks from my sources business really went down dramatically. i believe amat if we do not see pick by the end of the quarter you will see layoffs. also, i thought it was funny that management stated that amat could remain profitable during and downturn revenue ,serious who said something about profitability? over all, regards to the risks stock is overvalued. it will be intersting what these firms do with amat. the big negative i have with this is wall street reports that i have read have been awful-and clearly misunderstood. i lot of the reports as i stated said we will se no more revisions which they were dead wrong. i'm now looking for eps this year of around 1.18-1.22 this year, if nothing bad happens. trading at 3xsales, with eps and revenues sequentially moving down the stock in trouble. the only good thing is the market is a bubble. but, if the market takes a hit , this stock will get hit hard since no good news is coming to 1999. that is a very bad book to bill regarding amat.

To: David Aegis who wrote (19338)	5/12/1998 9:27:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Misc. notes from the CC: Margins down partly due to spares & service business, something that usually picks up during a downturn DRAM as a % of sales fell to 22% from 38% in Q1 Taiwan- "opportunities robust for the foundry business" $63M used this qtr in the stock repurchase program Believe they are best suited to bring coppoer from "the lab to the fab." Believe we are currently trolling the bottom of the cycle but cannot predict the end Aligning cost structure to be prepared for even the most prolonged downturn Global growth from semis for '98: +1% to +2% Global capex spending: Down 10-15%(Revised downward from the shareholders meeting) DRAM bit growth for '98: 65-70% Maintaining or gaining market share in all market areas* *Currently only 20-23% of the world's capacity is .25mu or below. Stated chipmakers "will be under pressure" to move to the smaller geometries once a recovery begins