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To: Petz who wrote (6120)5/13/1998 10:10:00 PM
From: Ed Sammons  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 6843
 
John,

Thanks for Tom's link. If the roadmap is accurate, I think AMD will be in a good position for the next 5-6 months. The Celeron300 release in June is a nonissue, if it has no cache and runs on a 66MHz. From the graph, it also looks like the Mendocino based Celeron (Sept 98) will be on a 66MHz bus. Does anyone know if this is accurate? Second question is, 'Why?'. During the lull from now till Mendocino Celeron, I hope AMD will use this time to separate the K6 from any Celeron linkage (unlike the boner w/ the PMMX).

AMD seriously needs to release a 350MHz K6-3D on May 28. That will leave AMD 1 speed bin behind Intel for for 2 months, maybe enough to affect 2nd quarter results ($210 price differential from PII300 to PII350). Also, from 350MHz upward, the K6 will not be influenced by Celeron pricing. I think AMD needs to be no more than 1 speed bin behind Intel, since I don't think the PII can compete with the K6, except at the highest speed bin, and allow Intel to make a 50% gross margin. Therefore, if AMD can stay in the speed race, I think AMD's gross margins will rise nicely.

I was astounded by the quoted price differential of PII Xeon w/ 2MB cache (400MHz-$2700, 450MHz-$4500). Looks like server manufacturers will be well rewarded by making multi-CPU (400MHz-2MB or 450MHz-512KB) boxes and clusters as well as moving to less CPU intensive I/O architectures.



To: Petz who wrote (6120)5/14/1998 12:58:00 AM
From: Yousef  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 6843
 
John,

Re: "Since most of the public only understands "MHz" however, AMD will have to
drop the price of the K6-300 to at least the Celery 300 level in June."

So John, care to give us your estimate for AMD's "blended" ASP and an
earnings estimate ?? TIA

Make It So,
Yousef