Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Bob who wrote (19388)	5/13/1998 2:37:00 PM
From: Brad Rogers	Respond to of 70976

Bob, I agree. The CEO's guiding folks "down to a number he can beat", is basically low-balling. Semantics. I think we are talking about the same thing. Brad Check this out (from EE Times). DAW BOOKS BIG ORDER, SEES INDUSTRY RECOVERY -- Daw Technologies has won a contract worth about $3.2M in new business to provide the clean-room air delivery system for the expansion of "a North American facility of a major multinational semiconductor manufacturer," the Salt Lake City-based firm said. David R. Grow, EVP/COO, stated, "We believe this is a precursor to the recovery of the semiconductor industry and represents the beginning of an increase in spending by the major semiconductor companies for new or expanded manufacturing facilities." You read it here first. Daw Technologies: 80l 977-3236. This is from today's EE Times. Regards, Mark

To: Dr. Bob who wrote (19388)	5/13/1998 5:36:00 PM
From: Robert J	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

I liked when Mr.Morgan said that in 1987 things looked very bad, similar to today. He also said for every $ invested (in 87) brought you 50 in return. Unless I misunderstood him. Bob

To: Dr. Bob who wrote (19388)	5/14/1998 2:54:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

CC notes: -the industry continues to trend downward for a second full quarter -gaining market share -it's very uncertain when the downturn will end -R and D for 300 mm will be "rationalized" in view of the later industry transition -10-15% decline in industry cap-ex in 1998 -expect trend of orders in N. America to be lightly down in the next few quarters. -3d quarter guidance: fewer orders from Taiwan and U.S., EPS .20 to .23 fully diluted -probably now trolling the bottom of the cycle -order rates will bottom in either 4th quarter 98 or 2d quarter 1999(calendar) -sub-1000 PCs are entry level or niche machines, and people usually decide they need to upgrade -Japan is unable to move forward, isn't taking advantage of opportunities -not sure we're coming up for air yet -we have no idea when DRAM supply and demand are coming into balance, we just take it one quarter at a time. We have a hard time seeing orders beyond one quarter. DRAM prices have to firm before capital equipment orders pick up. -we are in the business of contingency planning -backlog has stayed firm -market share: maintaining in .35 micron, increasing in .25 micron -Question: what will semi cap-equipment purchases be for 1999? Answer: we'll tell you in 1999. No, we'll tell you in 2000. ______________________________________________________________________ They must have given 15 variations on the theme of: "we can't predict the future". They gave very specific guidance for next quarter, and were consistently very vague beyond that. Overall, I was encouraged. The current round of earnings estimates reductions will probably be the last or next to last. Barring a recession or fed hike or India nuking Pakistan or a further East Asia meltdown, since the BTB might pick up by September 1998 (optimistic end of the range), then I need to buy back into AMAT by the fall. I still see lots of volatility before then, and several buying opportunities. The CC has moved my mood from a 3 to a 4, with 1 being jtechkid and 10 being Brian K. I'll probably use my cash at 32, and be fully margined at 27, and be sweating if we hit my predicted low of 22. This cash is burning a hole in my pocket, and my wife is asking me, "why don't we use it to buy that house on 15 acres on the Olympic Peninsula, we could spend the summers there....."