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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: N. David Lessani who wrote (2157)	5/13/1998 11:46:00 PM
From: Dougerdad	Respond to of 5944

Adaptec has one of the strongest management teams in the business today. We must remember they have invested heavily in future technology. This should payoff in the long run (i.e. satellite, storage area network and Fibre channel). But today, their core business is SCSI and chips for disk drives. This business is at risk. There are several short term threats which are just starting to rear their ugly head. They are: 1. The shift from high priced desktop SCSI to low priced PCs with ATA drives. The power desktop is being replaced with lightening fast sub $1000 PC's. 2. Cheap ATA drives with up to 12 GB (why should I pay more for 4 GB of SCSI?) 3. Introduction of SCSI "like" commands to the ATA command set. This will allow ATA to catch up. 4. The introduction of Universal Serial Bus support in Windows 98. With scanners, tapedrives and other devices moving to cheap USB, the demand for low end SCSI will go away. 5. The drive chip business will also be impacted. The drive manufactures now design their own controller chips, they do not need ADPT. Enough said. The upside is that the management team is the best. They have several new products in the pipeline. If anyone can dominate the I/O market, its Adaptec. I sold yesterday, but will watch this one closely.