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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Larry J. who wrote (2161)	5/14/1998 8:20:00 PM
From: Mark	Respond to of 5944

Larry, Great post - I found your assessment very honest and realistic. Yup, you are somewhat right in that I understand the technology, but I'd be the first to admit that my stock value assessment is not what I'd like it to be. As far as I'm concerned, SI is a great site to help me rationalise what I understand, provided other folks are prepared to share their insights. (Which you did - so thankyou !) OK, so lets get to what I think are my current key points - 1) SCSI market - There's a lot of FUD here (fear, uncertainty and doubt). The market might be going away. However, a few observations - a) whilst the consensus view is that this market WILL die over time the uncertainty is WHEN. Someone recently posted a link to a GREAT assessment of market views of Fibre vs. SCSI. (I can't remember who, but it's in the last 30 posts, and it was really pertinent - so a big THANKYOU !) As far as my instinct goes, YUP these things change, BUT RARELY AS FAST AS YOU EXPECT. I am currently of the view that the SCSI market may have 2 years or more of decent opportunities. So, if this market isn't going away just yet, why are ADPT having so much difficulty with it ? b)(This is a bigee !) ADPT have now had two quarters of disappointing sales revenues, and SCSI has been cited (I think ?) as largely being the reason. I recently asked the question about what has happened to the other SCSI vendors in the same time frame ? (Especially, in relation to QLogic, for whom SCSI is a major revenue driver). Well, tonight I had a few beers (well quite a lot really, hic!) with someone who's QLogic holding has been an 8-bagger (!). He's VERY happy with the last two quarters of QLogic, who seem to have beaten analyst estimates....... And this INSPITE of ADPT's problems..... HUM !!!??? 2) I think it's a Jack Walch-ism (maybe ?) which says - "It takes an odd number of executives to run a company, and three is too many". If I have learned anything over the last 2-3 years it's that one man holds a DRAMATIC amount of influence over an organisation. (Have you ever visited all those HP sites and wondered why they are SO (nicely) similar. Have you ever met Bob Hewlett ? (I haven't, but from what I've heard from folks who have, it all makes sense). As such, I find it GENUINELY of concern that the years of consistent growth in this company change at about the time that the CEO departed. (Can anyone confirm this ?) If so, we can all talk about the GREAT management of this company, but if this was really just this one guy, then I'm afraid "the great management" might already have gone.... (FWIW - I read another recent link which was some ADPT (officer ?) keynote about bandwidth - All I can say is that it must have been some loon conference or he'd have been hissed off the stage. What a pile of........ If this guy believes that quality of life can somehow related to the speed of light then he needs a long course in human communication. But quipping aside, this address seemed genuinely lacking in substance - It was scary - A company needs real leadership direction and focus - have you ever heard Scott Mc Neally ? Now there's a dude who knows how to make a keynote). . I wonder if we should all buy QLogic ? Mark