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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (18486)	5/14/1998 2:11:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

You are making me a little worried, Arik. I've concluded that what you say about a significant decline in the US market is inevitable (probably within this year, if not the next few months). Do you think it is possible that some of the other markets can escape without significant downturns also? I'm about 30% invested. Some foreign CE's, some gold and other PM, a small amount of US equities, a small number of puts on 4 or 5 US stocks. Won't the collapse of the US market necessarily weaken the US currency significantly with respect to other currencies and won't that provide a cushion for those owning markets that have already had their own BKs? thanks in advance tippet

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (18486)	5/14/1998 2:20:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 94695

Daq and SPX breaking out topside of the indecision triangles today: iqc.com Pete's buying the dip -g-

To: Arik T.G. who wrote (18486)	5/15/1998 1:41:00 PM
From: Chip McVickar	Respond to of 94695

Arik, >>would you be buying this market...GE, KO...now for the longterm<< This is a valid question and difficult. If I continue to believe that the economic environment that is in place today will continue for the next 10+ years and favor continued share appreciation why wouldn't I continue to buy at this time. The answer of course is....Yes, buy SELECTIVELY The last stock I purchased was Mobil at 66....after it sold off 25% and is now at 81...that is a company worth holding for the next 10 years unless their fundamentals or the oil markets change. I would buy any stronge company it corrected 25%....if they are secure in their markets. But these arguments were faced when Mobil retreated from 60 to 45 in the 80's and they will be there again in 2002. (Mobil split in 5/97) A market pull back of 15% is a very real possibility. Will a 25% decline and subsequent restructuring of our debt and financial companies valuations bring on a depression....Would markets at 7000 implode further..? Depends on what gets us there....sure you could work out the numbers, but what is going to get us there...what trigger and how fast..? Will take a major event. The parabolic rise in the charts is remarkable and begs for answers: when, how far, and in what manner will the slope be resolved..? I'm about 60% in equites...what percentage is correct for me and others should be based on age...income...debt and shortterm obligations....and ones tolerance for speculation. As for correlations between Japan and USA's markets....they are not similar. Maybe some what similar between USA in 1929 and Japan 1990. Japan's problems are corruption and the lack of the cross regulatory systems that are now in place in the USA since 1930's.*If this seperation of banking and insurance and equity markets is substantially changed by pressures on congress and the regulatory bodies are not adjusted to meet these new conditions....this argument is void and we could be in big trouble....* With all this having been said...the modern currency and international financial systems have basically managed to maintain themselves for 50 years, with constant difficulty and probably much to the players surprise. These systems are unstable and in the blink of a nano-second and a burst electronic trading can wipe-out all of my gains. But do I get out now and miss the potential of next 10+ years....not yet, but maybe soon....maybe soon. Very hard question some of these stocks are up 500% BWDIK...these are opinions and thoughts only. Chip