To: Lane who wrote (19475 ) 5/15/1998 12:23:00 AM From: Paul V. Read Replies (1) | Respond to
Lane, >the nysebp looks to have reversed according to DW. What exactly does this mean in relation to the chances, timing, extent of correction?< Check the DW Bull percentage which I posted and draw lines connecting the bull percentages for the weeks from 2/17/98 to the current date for the bpopti, 10week and nyse, highlight those sectors, etc which are above the 70% and above (overbought area) and those sectors, etc 30% or less (oversold area). The bpopti and 10 week moving average are leading indicators. When these bull percentages drop from above the 70% to below and then go lower according to Tom Dorsey the indicate that the market will be going lower in a correction. You will note that the bpopti and 10 week moving average drop earlier and then sure enough according to Tom's prediction the NYSE bull percentage reflecting the whole market reversed to a Bull Alert status. Remember, the tendency of the market is to seek the MEAN (average) 50%. I am just glad I am not in the sectors of banks, savings and loans, real estate, insurance sensitive stocks which are above the 70+% area since statistically they have the qreatest risk to drop. While we in AMAT of the Semi sector are in the 45% range and IMO have less risk of going down further.
