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Strategies & Market Trends : India Coffee House -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mohan Marette who wrote (607)	5/15/1998 12:00:00 PM
From: Nick	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12475

Sanctions on India, and now F-16s for Pakistan. Clinton says Pakistan now needs those F-16s to defend itself. How the heck can the US claim to be neutral by starting an arms race in the region? I hope India refuses to sign the treaty.

To: Mohan Marette who wrote (607)	5/15/1998 12:02:00 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12475

Mohan, Worswick, all, I recall last July when Seagate came out with their earnings report they included a warning that, because they had hedged their baht exposure with futures contracts and Thailand had devalued the currency just a few days earlier, they would have to take a large charge against the futures contracts in their October report. No one thought much about it in macro terms, it seemed to be a company specific problem since SEG was the largest foreign employer in Thailand (I think even the largest employer period outside of the goverment). No one that I can recall suggested then that all of Asia would fall into the morass that has ensued. I have a very bad feeling that India's decision may be seen in the same light a year or two from now. Just the beginning of a long process. We won't see the full implications for years. Just a bad feeling. A very bad feeling. I know, I know, I just need a good night's sleep and a hot stock. Sam

To: Mohan Marette who wrote (607)	5/15/1998 12:43:00 PM
From: eWhartHog	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12475

An option for India could be to call the sanctions bluff. New multilateral loans are largely used to cover principal and interest payments on existing loans, with a little left over for new projects. If India declares it will no longer make payments on existing debt as long as any sanctions are in place, the West may be forced to beg India to take new loans. The alternative would be to show the world the IMF, World Bank, Asian Development Bank, etc. are houses of cards that must rely on ever-increasing loans to debtor nations to preserve their illusion of solvency.