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Technology Stocks : Adaptec (ADPT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (2231)	5/16/1998 12:29:00 PM
From: Larry J.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 5944

I'm not much of a chartist, but look @ a three year chart, and you'll see that $16 per share has not been violated since mid '95. It came close again in July / Aug. '96. Obviously $16 is huge support, and I would concede that if it doesn't hold, then another 10% give or take is possible. However, look at Fridays action on a 15 minute chart. The stock went down to $16.25 and sat there for all of 15 minutes before rising quickly to 16 5/8 and then $17 on volume before drifting lower with the market for the balance of the session. Closed on an uptick FWIW. I would love to hear how ADPT looks from a Technical Analysis. Any takers?? Also looking for detail on the Form 144 filed on May 13 (Need a subscription to Edgars). Larry

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (2231)	5/16/1998 2:02:00 PM
From: Zhivago	Respond to of 5944

You mentioned your "watch closely" list not being real successful lately. Frankly, my whole portfolio sucks, down about 5% in the last 6 weeks. I had rotated out of techs at the beginning of the year into middle of the road growth stocks. This is the first year in the last 5 that my individual stocks, at a bare bone minimum, are not keeping pace with my mutual funds. I am curious as to any comments about how others are faring, because as we all know the Dow or Nasdaq never tell the whole story.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (2231)	5/18/1998 1:12:00 PM
From: slob	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 5944

Zeev, I'm in so lets see a bounce back to $20. Looks like the "ridiculosly" level has been reached, low $15 9/16, missed it by a 1/16. Anyway I agree with you that most of those calling for $10 have opinions that change with the prevailing wind. I don't think that ADPT is without risk because if SCSI gets replaced by 1394 or fiber channel than ADPT looses the system's level control that has enabled them to get high gross margins. ADPT looks like one sick puppy if gross margins fall to around 40%. I'm also concerned that incorporating Symbios will not be problem free. From what I've seen ADPT does an excellent job at managing inventory but remember they are fabless, managing a fab is a much more difficult problem. With a fab come all the problems of fab utilization and process development, yield etc. This will present ADPT's managers with a real test of their capabilities and the breadth of their knowledge. Could translate into some ugly earnings statements if they are found wanting. Slob