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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (42586)	5/16/1998 1:24:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Darrell, I made a mathematical error in my previous post, so if anyone has not read the edited version let me go over the math now. The claim was that Dell could not maintain a 40% growth over the next five years. If we assume that the total market for computers is growing at 16% for five years, then the market will be 210% of what it is today. If Dell grew at 40% over the five years from its current base (which I took to be 6%) then its market share will have increased to 15.4%. John Rosser claimed that the current market share is 7.3%. If that number is true, then after five years assuming the other numbers above, Dell's market share would be 18.7%. The point I was trying to make is that there is plenty of room in the marketplace to accommodate the kind of growth we're forecasting. Sorry for the confusion, CTC

To: D.J.Smyth who wrote (42586)	5/16/1998 2:09:00 PM
From: jim kelley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

RE: DELL's growth rate... Let's see the PC market is growing about 15-20% per year and so DELL only really has to grow at a 2X multiple to make the 40% target mentioned by one threadster. Now they are growing at a 3.5 X . So the 40% number is perfectly within reach. UNITS (M) DELL (M units) % unit marketshare 92 6.4 6.9% 106 9.0 8.5% 124 12 .5 10.1% 146 17.6 12.1% Looks perfectly reasonable to me! In fact I think they can do better than this example illustrates.