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Strategies & Market Trends : Electronic Contract Manufacture (ECM) Sector -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jeffbas who wrote (1524)	5/16/1998 3:26:00 PM
From: jeffbas	Respond to of 2542

Paul, On ACT, note my remarks on that thread about BAY - that their current business level is already down by over half from the high. I very specifically remember them being asked about the future outlook for BAY from that high level, when it first showed up - it was not for a major decline! As I get older and more experienced, Warren Buffett's comment about mgmt rings truer and truer. Don't invest in businesses that can be messed up by mediocre of poor mgmt - because you are likely to get it. One thing I have not seen, which surprises me, is some quantitative analysis as to the effect on business activity of inventory adjustments - because of lower demand for electronic products from Asia and just in time changes to more like the Dell pattern. It seems to me that a good analyst could estimate (in a range at least) how much demand is now being affected and how much it will bounce back when the adjustment is over.