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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jbe who wrote (22172)	5/16/1998 6:29:00 PM
From: Lee Fredrickson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

jbe; Don't think you're alone...I've been under the 'hood' of my PC about a grillion times, and it still don' run worth a damn. I'm also a pretty damn good mechanic (of ferry boats), but will walk thru tarantulas to avoid working on a vehicle or kitchen appliance... (FW that's W). <This is the sort of thing I run across when I follow a tech thread:> <Now, oil -- that's another story! There's this black gook in the ground.> Yeah... but the black gook has a way of being manipulated by non-productive types in the following ways: <...The current manoeuvre (sic) has seen the spread between June forward paper cargoes---the current basis for pricing--- and July paper somersault from a 30% discount barely a week ago, to a 30 cents premium now....> from London Reuters, 5/13/98. Now, I've got a tenuous grip on what that says, but compound it with all the trading tricks, political ploys, and various other machinations in the Oil Biz, and I'm not so sure that this game is completely the Supply><Demand game that we wish it were. Fun is where you find it... Bought a wee pharmaceutical issue last week [NEOT], there's another field where the nuts and bolts terminology and science can get pretty furry... Adio Drive careful Smack is good for forgetting your worries. (And your name and address, too.) Or was it mph that was inquiring? Lee

To: jbe who wrote (22172)	5/16/1998 7:07:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

Good afternoon jbe, I certainly bring out the journalist in you! Instead of answering my question you've tossed several in my direction. After reading your answer I still don't understand the market psychology surrounding the oil sector! OT First, think of the market in existential terms. Kafka's Penal Colony immediately comes to mind. After the harrow has repeatedly engraved your transgressions on your back to you begin to understand your sin! Actually, with WDC it was pretty easy to see it coming, because we could watch extreme overcapacity in in the entire sector starting with Seagate. And even there the market's realization that the sector was suffering from oversupply developed slowly. I was not lucky with my picks, I simply watched certain parameters and ignored everything else. So here's how I do it: read some unbiased publications concerning the utility of the products produced, and the competitive challenges faced by the company. Ignore the technical mumbo-jumbo on the threads. I think that only engineers understand it, and the rest of us tend to be cowed by their expertise. Focus on the business. How well does the company execute compared to its competitors? I would guess that a "current non-existent IEEE ... product" is a product that will be developed in the future. Alternatively, it might be some kind of virtual oar used to propel a virtual boat in an imaginary stream. The issue is, do people want to buy it, if so, how badly do they want it, and can the company profitably produce it. Everything else is noise. To use mph's favorite drug of choice as an example-- Viagra -- you don't need to know how it works or how it's manufactured to know that there is potentially a huge demand for the drug. I suspect that the engineers sometimes spend more time showing off their specialized knowledge to one another than actually imparting useful information. The tech stocks I'm in are ASND, DELL, HBOC, PSFT and TLAB. I'm not familiar with the concept of "enterprise value". Perhaps I know it under a different name. I would be happy to look at it if you would reference the concept. Now that I've answered your questions, how about answering mine? (You are a terrible interviewee -- always shifting the questions back to the interviewer <VBG>) TTFN, CTC

To: jbe who wrote (22172)	5/16/1998 7:51:00 PM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

JBE, Chuzzlewit IS a brilliant stock picker, in my estimation. One of the better ones I've come across on SI. (I look for them. There are a number of others.) Re: technology stock picking. The first rule is to not lose money. That is both simple and profound. As you think about it, it involves favoring established stable winners over emerging supposed supergrowers. Of course, the fabled riches come when you can find the long term stable winners, the Msft, Csco, Intc, Psft, Dell, etc. as they are emerging. It is I think generally a mistake to try to buy too early and too cheap. The way to buy tech cheap is to buy the best at moments of general market panic, a short term individual issue stumble, or some generalized tech pessimism. It is nearly always a mistake to pick the second and third tier in a sector because they are cheaper. Those are the ones that really crash. The disk drives like the commodity chip makers are in the worst areas of tech and are cheap for a reason. The whole effort should be to find non-commodity long term quasi or real francise winners. That's what the book Gorilla Game is all about. Which I haven't read, only read about. Don't suspect there is much really new there, but it does seem to collect and codify in its own language what are smart, and not so smart, ways of approaching tech investing. E.g., the sorts of things I've been saying above. The ideal of course is to find a tech company that is as reliable and steady a grower as Coke or P&G or a drug co., that has a comparable francise lock on its niche, and which is growing at a 25%+ rate over the longer term (e.g. five years.) Companies that pretty clearly fit that bill are e.g. Msft, Csco, Psft. Dell is more controversial. Its been growing faster lately, no one thinks it can continue. Everyone has thought it is in a commodity business. While that is true, its way of doing the business is not commodity. Think Walmart compared to other department stores. And on and on. But of course the real ideal is to find such a company selling at a price which does not discount all its future growth. It is the rare tech company, even among the established stallwarts, which does not reach a stock price peak at some point which takes a full year to again hit. So timing on tech stocks is not insignificant. You pick a great company. And wait until everyone is really pessimistic. And then buy it. Those have been my great wins. With Dell, Intc (two.5 years ago, now out), Psft, and a host of others. Also pick the long term winner tech sectors. Internet plumbing. (e.g Cisco.) Telecom equipment (how about not only Lu, but also Tlab, Afci, Noka, Qcom). Enterprise software (e.g. Psft) . Windows NT invasion of the enterprise/Unix space. (not only Msft, but also check Ctxs, Neta). Wintel invasion of the Server/Workstation performance spaces. (Not only Msft, Intc (later now slow grower?), but also Rmbs, Dell.) And on and on. Doug

To: jbe who wrote (22172)	5/17/1998 12:11:00 AM
From: Czechsinthemail	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

<OT> jbe, Well, since I don't know what a "current non-existent IEEE hardware product" is, or a PCI slot or a bay or a PCI computer, I have trouble assessing whether whatever it is is going to be dynamite or not Though at first blush it all seems like a lot of jargon thrown around by a bunch of intellectually incestuous techerwoods, there is a certain logic behind tech nomenclature. For example, "current non-existent IEEE hardware products" derive their name from the screaming sound people make when they discover the hardware product they have been counting on to function when electric current runs through it is in fact non-existent (dead). PCI refers to the "Politically Correct Interface" that pleases no one yet hopefully offends no one. Some terms like "bay" are deceptively simple but seem confusing because their meaning is misinterpreted. A "bay" is a body of water forming an indentation in the surrounding shoreline. So you might think it had something to do with that or with the howling sound animals sometimes make (i.e. the same origins as the "Bay Area" in California). But actually it refers to the compartments where bombs are stored on aircraft. The analogy is that something you get on the expectation it will "fly" ends up "bombing". I use my computer the way I drive my car. I can do both, but don't ask me what's underneath the hood! OK, I won't ask you what's under the hood but based on what you say, consider this: you might be burning too much oil and gasoline in your computer. This can really mess up its performance and really won't get you where you want to go. Hope this helps:-) Baird