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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: j g cordes who wrote (43362)	5/16/1998 9:01:00 PM
From: Patrick Slevin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 58727

Combative? Why on Earth would someone of Irish Descent who grew up in New Jersey be combative? Surely you have me confused with people who would shoot off your kneecaps merely because you looked at me cross-eyed. Such is not the case. Or is it? I am saying that the potential is there, not only for a 20 % correction but even more. The potential.....and that would not change the Bull Trend. The rise in the market approaches parabolic levels not seen since the Twenties. A reversal of 20 % would not change the Primary Direction of the trend. But it sure would scare the bejesus out of a lot of "new paradigm" as well as a smattering of "in it for the long haul" types, would it not? I find it incredible that educated people such as yourself dismiss the possibility of such an occurrence, and wonder about your resiliency as the result of such an event. If indeed, there is a pullback of such magnitude it may occur so quickly that defensive measures will not be effected quickly enough. I do not consider myself bearish; I consider myself an extremely worried Bull. These rallies that we have been witnessing are being sold into by sharp American investors. Mutual Funds apparently have no damage control system in place for a meltdown. This could be a dominoe effect, aided by this build-up of stock purchasing based on the greater fool theory. In retrospect, it will be easy to blame this or that event as the reason for a decline. But major turns are not in reality based on one event....they are based on a series of events. FOMC hiking rates, Pakistan setting off a bomb, INDO busting up, these are isolated events. There are too many external events.....too many internal events. Sooner or later, someone may say it was Jakarta that triggered a major decline....or Washington did it....or Tokyo...... You are an educated fellow, history tells us it is never one event. It's a series of events. The investing public merely chooses to ignore that these events are occurring; day in, day out. Earnings don't meet up. Asian problems contribute to these earnings problems. We have discussed many of these problems yet the market has chugged along. The day of reckoning has to come. The more the market moves up the faster it shall come down and the harder it shall be to position trade it. All of this is of course my opinion, and I wish you well no matter how you decide to interpret coming market events.